TZUTC: 0000
MSGID: 168324.weather@1:2320/105 2dc5ec2e
PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0
TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0
BBSID: CAPCITY2
CHRS: ASCII 1
FORMAT: flowed
ACUS48 KWNS 070917
SWOD48
SPC AC 070915

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Saturday...
Some severe potential remains evident from parts of the Southeast
into the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic, and possibly Ohio Valley on
D4/Saturday, but details remain uncertain.

Guidance generally depicts continued amplification of a deep and
progressive shortwave trough on Saturday across the eastern CONUS. A
deepening surface low is forecast to move from the Ohio Valley
toward the Lower Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front sweeps
through much of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Strongly sheared
convection with some severe potential may be ongoing Saturday
morning along/ahead of the cold front, from parts of MS/AL into the
southern Appalachians. Strong deep-layer flow/shear will eventually
overspread parts of the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic and Carolinas.
However, longevity and magnitude of the severe threat in these
regions is uncertain, as instability weakens with northeastward
extent, and stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced north of
the warm sector with time.

...D5/Sunday - D8/Wednesday...
The cold front is forecast to move through coastal NC and the FL
Peninsula on Sunday, but weak ascent and buoyancy are expected to
limit organized storm potential. Dry and stable conditions in the
wake of this cold frontal passage are expected to minimize
severe-storm potential across the CONUS into early next week.

..Dean.. 01/07/2026

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)
SEEN-BY: 19/10 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302 128/187 129/14
SEEN-BY: 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50 110 700 218/700 840 220/10 20 30
SEEN-BY: 220/70 90 221/1 6 360 226/17 18 30 44 50 227/114 229/110
SEEN-BY: 229/134 206 275 300 307 317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 266/512
SEEN-BY: 267/800 291/111 301/1 320/219 322/757 335/364 341/66 342/200
SEEN-BY: 396/45 460/58 633/280 712/848 770/1 100 340 350 772/210 220
SEEN-BY: 772/230 902/26 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35
PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 218/840 770/1 633/280 229/426