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ACUS01 KWNS 071254
SWODY1
SPC AC 071253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST
TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms are possible from late tonight into the
early morning on Thursday from parts of west and northwest Texas
northeastward into Oklahoma.

...Southwest TX into Central OK...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a compact cyclone just off the
coast of the northern Baja Peninsula. This cyclone is forecast to
move quickly eastward across southern AZ/NM and northern Mexico
throughout the day today, devolving into an open wave. This wave
will likely pivot into a more negative tilt by early tomorrow as it
moves across the southern High Plains. Strong mid-level flow will
accompany this wave, spreading eastward/northeastward across much of
the southern Plains and Ozark Plateau.

Significant mass response, and associated airmass modification, will
occur across the southern Plains ahead of the this low, with the
low-level moisture (i.e. low 60s dewpoints) currently confined to
the TX Coastal Plain and South TX likely reaching southern OK by
early tomorrow. Expectation is for ascent attendant to the
approaching shortwave to interact with the northwestern periphery of
this moisture return during the last few hours of the period (i.e.
08Z-12Z Wednesday), resulting in elevated thunderstorms from
southwest TX into central OK. Buoyancy will be modest (i.e. MUCAPE
from 500 to 1000 J/kg), fostered by a combination of steepening
mid-level lapse rates and increased low to mid-level moisture.
Strong deep-layer vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear of 40 to 60
kt) will be in place as well, supporting the potential that some of
these thunderstorms are more robust/organized. Given the low-level
stability, primary risk with the more organized storms is likely
hail, but some isolated gusts maybe be strong enough to penetrate
the low-level stability as well.

...Pacific Northwest...
A strong shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward through
the Pacific Northwest today, followed closely by another
southeastward-progressing shortwave that moves into northern CA.
Cold mid-level temperatures will foster scant buoyancy, and the
frontal band associated with this lead wave will likely feature some
deeper convective elements capable of producing lightning.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/07/2026

$$

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