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ACUS02 KWNS 071724
SWODY2
SPC AC 071723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from Oklahoma into
parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley.

...Southern Plains into the Lower/Mid MS Valley...
Within a belt of broad/enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow, a
negative-tilt shortwave trough and accompanying surface low will
track northeastward from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes
through the period.

Strongly forced thunderstorms will be ongoing/spreading
east-northeastward across OK at the start of the period. While poor
midlevel lapse rates and only partially modified Gulf moisture will
limit buoyancy for these storms, 50-60 kt of effective shear will
support a few organized clusters/line segments and perhaps transient
supercell structures. Isolated large hail will be the primary
concern, though locally damaging gusts and a brief tornado will be
possible with any surface-based storms that can evolve.

This activity will spread/develop northeastward into the Ozarks and
eventually the Lower OH Valley vicinity through the
afternoon/evening, in tandem with the midlevel trough and surface
low. Here, boundary-layer moisture and related buoyancy will become
more limited with northward extent, though strengthening deep-layer
flow/shear (to include a 50-kt low-level jet) will continue to
support a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and
possibly a brief tornado. Multiple rounds of storms will be possible
through this corridor into the overnight hours ahead of an
approaching front. Farther southeast, recent high-resolution
guidance depicts a band of storms developing within broad/moist
confluent low-level flow over the Lower MS Valley late in the
period. While these storms will be on the eastern edge of the warm
sector, strong low/deep-layer shear will yield a conditional severe
risk.

...Arizona...
Thunderstorm potential is expected to increase through the day
across parts of AZ, as a midlevel shortwave trough moves
east-southeastward across the region. Gusty winds and/or small hail
could occur with the strongest convection, though buoyancy is
currently expected to remain too meager for an organized severe
threat.

..Weinman.. 01/07/2026

$$

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