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ACUS03 KWNS 071914
SWODY3
SPC AC 071913

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CST Wed Jan 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from the lower
Mississippi Valley into parts of the Mid-South and Southeast.

...Lower MS Valley into parts of the Southeast and TN/OH Valleys...
In the wake of a negative-tilt shortwave trough and related surface
low departing the Great Lakes region, a front will extend from the
surface low southwestward along the lower/middle OH Valley into the
Arklatex through the first half of the period. During this time,
broad low-level warm advection amid a relatively moist air mass
ahead of the front will support training thunderstorms beneath a
belt of strong, front-parallel midlevel southwesterly flow. Despite
poor deep-layer lapse rates and limited buoyancy, around 50 kt of
effective shear may promote a couple strong to severe storms capable
of damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and possibly a brief
tornado into the afternoon hours.

In the 21-03Z time frame, midlevel height falls accompanying a broad
upstream trough will impinge on the frontal zone over the Mid-South
vicinity. In response, a frontal wave will evolve into a surface low
while tracking east-northeastward across the TN Valley during the
overnight hours. Strengthening low-level warm-advection amid a plume
of moist/uncapped air (middle/upper 60s dewpoints) will yield a
quick uptick in thunderstorm coverage across the lower MS and TN
Valleys. Around 50-60 kt of effective shear and enlarging low-level
hodographs ahead of the low will conditionally favor a mix of
organized clusters and semi-discrete supercell structures -- posing
a risk of damaging winds and possibly a couple tornadoes. However,
weak buoyancy and the potential for many storm interactions increase
the overall conditionality of the tornado risk.

..Weinman.. 01/07/2026

$$

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