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ACUS01 KWNS 080048
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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CST Wed Jan 07 2026

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
A few marginally severe storms may occur late tonight into Thursday
morning from west and northwest Texas northeastward into Oklahoma.

...West and Northwest Texas/Oklahoma...
A low pressure center is evident on water vapor over northern Baja
California. This feature, and its associated mid-level trough will
move east-northeastward across northern Mexico this evening, and
into the southern Plains late tonight. Ahead of the trough,
low-level moisture will spread northward from north Texas into
Oklahoma, with the western edge of the moist airmass located from
southwest Oklahoma southward into west-central Texas. Weak
instability is expected to develop along the northwestern edge of
this airmass, where a low-level jet will gradually strengthen. Lift
associated with the jet will support isolated thunderstorm
development, beginning after midnight in west-central Texas.
Thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase in coverage, moving
northeastward into southwest and central Oklahoma by late in the
period.

RAP forecast soundings around midnight show a stout cap in place
from near the instability axis eastward, suggesting that any storms
that can initiate will likely be elevated at first. Some of the
cells could become surface-based later tonight, as the capped
airmass shifts eastward due to the approaching mid-level trough.
Forecast soundings from west-central Texas into far southwest
Oklahoma have effective shear of 50 to 60 knots, with 700-500 mb
lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/km. This could be enough for a marginal hail
threat. For cells that become surface-based, a few isolated severe
wind gusts will also be possible. The greatest potential for
isolated severe should be in the 08Z to 12Z timeframe.

..Broyles.. 01/08/2026

$$

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