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ACUS11 KWNS 081644
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081644=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-081845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0009
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026

Areas affected...Far northeast Oklahoma...southwest
Missouri...northern Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 1...

Valid 081644Z - 081845Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 1 continues.

SUMMARY...A squall line is expected to push east/northeast into
southwest Missouri and northern Arkansas through early/mid
afternoon. Severe wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado, will be
possible. Watch issuance downstream of ongoing WW 1 is uncertain,
but will be considered if trends begin to suggest an increasing
severe threat.

DISCUSSION...Cloud-top temperatures and lightning data have shown a
steady weakening of a squall line across northeast OK over the past
hour as the band of storms begins to struggle against diminishing
MLCAPE. However, severe wind gusts, including an 81 mph gust near
Independence, KS, continue to be noted with this line. These winds
are primarily being driven by very strong low-level flow/wind shear
as depicted by KINX, KSRX, and KSGF VWP observations that show 50
knots winds near 1 km ARL. These strong kinematics are expected to
persist - if not intensify - through late morning/early afternoon as
the primary upper wave continues to eject towards the mid-MS Valley
and an attendant surface cyclone intensifies.=20

Consequently, even with very meager buoyancy downstream into AR and
southern MO (MLCAPE of around 100-250 J/kg), severe/damaging winds
appear probable, and a brief tornado or two may be possible with any
deeper convective elements given 300-400 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. That
said, it remains unclear how widespread these threats will be
considering the recent weakening trend, and may be conditioned on
the quality of moisture return into and north of the Ozark Plateau
through mid-afternoon. Trends will continue to be monitored for the
need for downstream watch issuance.

..Moore.. 01/08/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_qc2hK3Hz2Gp5s2EDL_g29SPdoFdzNWIbr5Cf2JCUNGaXITKGQPvJc25g_Ea8ibGPkuEJzZdr=
Alwgn90ythFAftglYs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON   35699149 34869516 34859546 34899555 35049562 35189554
            35459536 35709519 35889514 36109508 36279505 36479504
            36609505 36779511 36909516 37049515 37189504 38199247
            38039209 37799181 37479167 37229156 36959147 36649137
            36209129 35889131 35699149=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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