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ACUS02 KWNS 081729
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SPC AC 081728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are forecast on Friday from the central Gulf
Coast into parts of the lower Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio
Valleys.

...East TX into the Lower MS/TN/OH Valleys...
At the start of the period, a midlevel shortwave trough and
accompanying surface cyclone will be departing the Great Lakes
region, while a southwestward-extending cold front moves eastward
across the OH and TN Valleys -- stalling with southward extent
across the lower MS Valley and western Gulf Coast. Bands of
thunderstorms will be ongoing within a plume of low-level warm
advection along/ahead of the front -- within an environment
characterized by strong deep-layer flow/shear and limited buoyancy.
Given the expected linear nature of these storms amid strong
low-level flow, damaging gusts will be the primary concern before
this activity outpaces the warm sector with eastward extent.

Farther south and west, a broad midlevel trough will move eastward
across the southern Plains toward the MS Valley through the period.
Guidance has trended generally slower with this feature in recent
runs, with only modest midlevel height falls impinging on the
frontal zone and warm sector during the peak convective period. As a
result, the overall low-level mass response appears to be somewhat
muted compared to earlier runs, with initial frontal-wave
development farther south near LA.

Nevertheless, strengthening low-level warm advection east of the
developing frontal wave/surface cyclone will yield an uptick in
thunderstorm coverage and intensity within confluence bands from the
central Gulf Coast northward into the lower MS and TN Valleys during
the afternoon into the evening/overnight hours. Here, upper 60s to
near 70 dewpoints (already in place along the central Gulf Coast)
will spread northward and destabilize the inland air mass. Despite
modest buoyancy, this rich moisture and strong low/deep-layer shear
(with increasing low-level hodograph size/curvature) will favor a
mix of semi-discrete supercells and clusters -- posing a risk of
damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes. Depending on the strength of
the low-level jet/mass response, a corridor of higher severe
potential will be possible from parts of LA into southern/central
MS.

Additional thunderstorm development/intensification is possible in
east TX along/ahead of the stalling front during the afternoon,
where sufficient buoyancy and a long/straight hodograph will support
a couple organized storms and attendant risk of damaging winds and
severe hail.

..Weinman.. 01/08/2026

$$

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