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ACUS01 KWNS 090047
SWODY1
SPC AC 090045

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CST Thu Jan 08 2026

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated risk for damaging gusts and possibly a tornado will
continue tonight from the Ozark Plateau eastward into the low/mid
Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys.

...01z Update...

Midlevel jet is forecast to strengthen in excess of 100kt as it
translates across central IL late this evening. As this speed max
shifts into lower MI the associated short-wave trough will advance
into the upper Great Lakes region by 09/12z. Latest satellite
imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is shifting
east of the MS River and this appears to be aiding a narrow band of
weak convection immediately downstream from southeast MO to
northeast IL. This activity has struggled to deepen/organize, though
some increase appears plausible given the approaching trough. Strong
height falls favor some upscale growth, but 00z sounding from ILX
exhibited only modest lapse rates with meager MUCAPE. Despite the
weak thermodynamic profiles, wind fields are very strong and favor
organized rotating updrafts. Will continue MRGL risk for the
aforementioned corridor as large-scale support is very favorable.

Late tonight, scattered convection is expected to increase across
the lower MS Valley. With large-scale forcing remaining well north
of this region, the prospect for organized severe will be somewhat
negated. Even so, some risk for strong gusts and perhaps a tornado
will be noted with the most robust storms.

..Darrow.. 01/09/2026

$$

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