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ACUS01 KWNS 090546
SWODY1
SPC AC 090545

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Thu Jan 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast Texas into the
central Gulf states.

...Southeast Texas to Central Gulf States...

Midlevel speed max is forecast to translate through the base of the
Four Corners trough into southeast NM at the start of the period
before advancing into central OK by early evening. Subsequently,
this feature will eject into southeast MO by 10/12z in response to a
northern stream trough digging into the upper MS Valley overnight.

Late this evening, surface front had progressed to a position from
western IL-northern AR-southern OK. This boundary should continue
sagging south, and 00z model guidance suggests a weak surface wave
will develop along the trailing boundary over south-central TX by
early afternoon. Some deepening should occur as a weak surface low
advances across northern LA into MS late in the period. Early in the
day the primary focus for convection will be along the cold front
across the lower OH/TN Valley region into the lower MS Valley,
primarily driven by low-level warm advection beneath a modest LLJ.
While this early-day convection may pose some risk for damaging
gusts and perhaps a tornado, the primary concern will occur later in
the day as the secondary speed max ejects across the southern Plains
toward southern MO.

Current thinking is elevated thunderstorms should develop ahead of
the ejecting speed max/short wave by 18z across south central TX.
This initial activity will likely be elevated, but as storms advance
downstream surface-based parcels will have negligible inhibition
near the lower Sabine River Valley. Hail/wind will be the primary
concern early with supercells. During the evening a marked increase
in the LLJ is expected across the lower MS Valley into northern AL
overnight. As convection advances east, stronger low-level shear
will favor some risk for tornadoes. While supercells are expected, a
considerable amount of convection is expected along the synoptic
warm front, and this should limit northward extent of higher
instability air mass.

At this time it does not appear necessary to increase severe
probabilities across the lower MS Valley into the central Gulf
states, primarily due to the short wave ejecting well north of the
higher-instability air mass.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 01/09/2026

$$

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