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ACUS01 KWNS 091202
SWODY1
SPC AC 091201

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0601 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast Texas into the
central Gulf states.

...MS/AL This morning...
Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across
parts of MS.  This activity is in a moist surface air mass with
dewpoints in the mid 60s, and MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg.  VAD
profiles suggest sufficient low-level shear for some concern for a
tornado or two this morning as activity tracks northeastward into
western AL.  However, model forecast soundings suggest a warm layer
in the 600-700mb layer that is likely limiting updraft strength and
the overall severe risk.

...TX/LA This Afternoon...
Strong, broad southwesterly flow aloft will be present across much
of the southeastern United States today, with several small
perturbations embedded within the flow.  A quasi-stationary front is
currently positioned from south TX into southern AR.  The air mass
southeast of the front will destabilize this afternoon, leading to
scattered thunderstorm development.  MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and
sufficient deep-layer shear will pose a risk a few strong/severe
storms capable of damaging winds and hail.

...LA/MS This Afternoon/Evening...
By late afternoon, ample daytime heating/destabilization will lead
to scattered thunderstorms over LA, spreading northeastward into MS.
Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, but slowly strengthening
low-level winds and shear will pose a risk of a few severe storms
capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

...Southern MS/AL Overnight...
The consensus of CAM solutions suggest that storms will become
focused along a surface baroclinic zone late tonight from southeast
MS into southern AL.  During this period, most models suggest
significant strengthening of the southerly low-level jet, with
forecast hodographs becoming increasingly favorable for supercells
and a few tornadoes - despite marginal thermodynamic support.

..Hart/Kerr.. 01/09/2026

$$

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