TZUTC: 0000
MSGID: 168392.weather@1:2320/105 2dc8c5c6
PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0
TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0
BBSID: CAPCITY2
CHRS: ASCII 1
FORMAT: flowed
ACUS11 KWNS 091309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091308=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-091515-

Mesoscale Discussion 0012
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0708 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

Areas affected...parts  of southeastern Louisiana through portions
of southern and central Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 091308Z - 091515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for an additional brief tornado and/or locally
damaging wind gusts is generally not expected to continue in the
near term.  However, trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...A couple of intensifying near-surface cyclonic
circulations have been recently observed within scattered ongoing
thunderstorm development.  This appears to have coincided with
subtle surface warming and moistening sufficient to contribute to
weak boundary-layer based instability, based on forecast soundings
and the 12Z sounding from Jackson.  But, this also appears to be
occurring as low-level hodographs shrink and trend more linear, in
the wake of the initial short wave trough now accelerating northeast
of the middle Mississippi Valley.  As a result, potential for
further similar mesovortex intensification accompanied by the risk
for a brief tornado and/or damaging wind gusts seems likely to
diminish shortly, if it hasn't already.

..Kerr/Hart.. 01/09/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5QmdUi6lSkMqDv1a58XCOg6FYDfonnSrU9bheXo0SnRTloydzt_k6kcWDGJOGPcYnk89pAiUL=
tgyMzMwJCpfQi-jzDA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   33758928 33858826 32448857 30968940 30549056 30959106
            31689024 32588979 33758928=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)
SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 16/0 19/10 37 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302
SEEN-BY: 123/130 128/187 129/14 142/104 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50
SEEN-BY: 154/110 700 203/0 218/700 840 220/10 20 30 90 221/1 6 360
SEEN-BY: 226/18 30 44 50 227/114 229/110 134 206 275 300 307 317 400
SEEN-BY: 229/426 428 470 664 700 705 240/5832 266/512 280/5003 291/111
SEEN-BY: 301/1 320/119 219 319 2119 322/757 762 326/101 335/364 341/66
SEEN-BY: 342/200 396/45 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848 902/26 2320/0
SEEN-BY: 2320/105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35
PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 1 320/219 229/426