TZUTC: 0000
MSGID: 168397.weather@1:2320/105 2dc8f560
PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0
TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0
BBSID: CAPCITY2
CHRS: ASCII 1
FORMAT: flowed
ACUS01 KWNS 091632
SWODY1
SPC AC 091630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across southeast Texas
into the central Gulf states.  A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts,
and large hail are possible through tonight.

...Southern LA northeastward into MS/AL this afternoon...
A southerly fetch of fully modified Gulf air (surface dewpoints near
70 deg F) within a weak but persistent warm-air advection regime
over the central Gulf Coast will probably yield a continuation of
isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon.  Some
breaks in the stratus will promote additional heating of the moist
and weakly unstable airmass.  Some weakening of low-level shear has
been observed this morning via the Jackson, MS and Hammond, LA
WSR-88D VADs, and this trend may continue through the mid afternoon
before strengthening later today and into tonight.  In the meantime,
an isolated threat for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado
may continue with a stronger storm or two.

...TX/LA/MS/AL this afternoon into the overnight...
Visible-satellite imagery this morning shows an extensive
multi-layer shield of clouds across south-central TX northeastward
into western LA.  Ahead of a larger mid-level trough moving east
across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains, a couple of
minor disturbances embedded within strong southwesterly flow are
forecast to move northeastward from TX into the lower MS Valley.  In
the low levels, a quasi-stationary front will serve as the northwest
delimiter of the moist/unstable sector before gradually moving
southward across east TX into the Ark-La-Miss later tonight.  The
air mass southeast of the front will destabilize this afternoon,
leading to eventual scattered thunderstorms with MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg.  This initial activity later this afternoon over TX into LA
will gradually shift eastward into LA/MS this evening and MS/AL
during the overnight.  Ample deep-layer shear will pose a risk a few
strong/severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail.  Towards
the late afternoon over east TX and western LA and especially
through the evening from southwest LA into central MS, 700-mb flow
(per EC model guidance) is forecast to intensify.  This
strengthening of the low to mid-level flow and enlarging of the
hodographs will probably coincide with the primary period of concern
for severe storms.  A few supercells capable of a tornado risk will
be the main hazard.  However, a threat for scattered damaging gusts
accompanying other organized storm structures and possibly a hail
threat will also continue into the overnight.

..Smith/Halbert.. 01/09/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)
SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 120 16/0 18/0 19/10 37 105/81 106/201 116/116 123/0
SEEN-BY: 123/25 126 130 180 755 3001 3002 4040 128/187 129/14 134/100
SEEN-BY: 135/115 142/104 153/143 148 149 151 757 7715 154/10 110 203/0
SEEN-BY: 218/700 840 221/1 6 360 222/2 226/30 227/114 229/110 134
SEEN-BY: 229/206 275 300 307 317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 240/5832
SEEN-BY: 250/1 266/512 275/1000 280/5003 291/111 301/1 320/119 219
SEEN-BY: 320/319 2119 322/757 762 326/101 335/364 341/66 342/200 396/45
SEEN-BY: 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848 1321 902/26 2320/0 105 304
SEEN-BY: 3634/0 12 27 57 58 60 61 119 5020/400 5075/35
PATH: 2320/105 3634/12 153/757 221/6 1 320/219 229/426