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AWUS01 KWNH 100536
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GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-101100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0012
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1236 AM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Areas affected...Southeast MS...Central AL...Northwestern GA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100535Z - 101100Z

SUMMARY...Rainfall intensity is reducing though there remains a
continued favorable training environment and persistent warm air
advection for additional upstream development to maintain training
through the overnight period.   Already wetted/saturated soils
with additional 2-3" may result in localized possible flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...04z Surface analysis depicts main synoptic front
bisects Middle TN into eastern MS before it starts to bend back
westward across central MS to near Vicksburg and along I-20 under
the influence of the upstream DPVA from the shearing upper level
trough and strong 130kt+ jet over the Ozark Plateau.  Still, the
influence of the initial shortwave and atmospheric river/stream
out of the western Gulf yesterday continues to slide northeastward
across central AL toward the Southern Appalachians later this
morning.  VWP shows broad 25-40kt LLJ from SE LA across AL into
western GA; which aligns with the core of enhanced moisture per
CIRA LPW sfc-850 and 850-700mb layers with .75-.9" and .4-.5" in
each layer respectively.  RAP analysis and GPS network confirm
1.75" core in central AL sliding northward.

The flow through this layer remains strong and nearly
unidirectional from 850 upward to support a narrow training
profile for ongoing/weakening convection and anything that would
redevelop upstream.  The surface to boundary layer does still have
some additional southerly component and surface
analysis/instability axis denotes an effective rain-cooled
isentropic ascent plain/front extending from the main front near
Vicksburg to Jackson to south of Meridian to near Montgomery.  As
such mildly unstable air with 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE south of the
boundary will isentropically ascend to provide some scattered
thunderstorm activity upstream. This should help to maintain some
training profile across central AL with occasional 1.5-1.75"/hr
rates and localized 2-3" streaks, eventually extending toward W GA
with slowly diminishing rates and therefore totals.

However, given the prolonged nature, short term FFG values may not
be exceeded except for areas already compromised across Southeast
MS and far SW AL and urban centers along the way.  However, add
this 1-3" totals to the 1-2" totals already fallen across AL into
GA and longer term exceedance is possible, suggesting localized
flash flooding conditions remain possible through the overnight
period into early morning.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!435-j2SzxdSRBUw-cE0OMsONPir6gcMUx4lDPm-ZmspqOtZkTROIgK4FzQEfJoUP2Gal=
mFisCP7jRcMnc0sYzE9_uBw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAN...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   34408506 34308429 33678411 33238444 32488549=20
            31648728 31158841 31198950 31919077 32649045=20
            33158827 33538722 34128572=20

=3D =3D =3D
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