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ACUS11 KWNS 100804
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100804=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-101000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0018
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Areas affected...parts of south central Mississippi and adjacent
portions of western Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 2...

Valid 100804Z - 101000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 2 continues.

SUMMARY...The evolution of a supercell or two with increasing
potential for tornadoes, perhaps a strong one, east of Jackson
toward the Meridian MS vicinity through 3-5 AM CST.  A new tornado
will probably be needed within the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...There has been at least some recent increase in
thunderstorm development within the moist warm sector, near/north of
the McComb vicinity, where surface dew points near 70F appear to be
supporting moderate boundary-layer based CAPE as high as 1500 J/kg.=20
This appears to be occurring as a weak surface low migrates eastward
into west central Mississippi near Jackson.=20=20

During the next few hours, models suggest that strengthening
southwesterly flow around the 850 mb level (to around 40 kt) may
contribute to enlarging low-level hodographs along a remnant surface
baroclinic zone southeast of Jackson into areas near/south of
Meridian, coincident with boundary-layer destabilization associated
with a slow northward advection of the warmer and more moist warm
sector air.  It appears this environment could become conducive to
substantive further thunderstorm intensification and organization,
including the evolution of a supercell or two accompanied by
increasing potential for tornadoes, perhaps a strong one.

..Kerr.. 01/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4h8N7GbXbC-1OKlVJC4n7KUQ2VUdoCe1hMtM2aRDrgZ6A35NekXqpvSpuoMHXGPq3SRaSgktR=
HPYIY37HuG5aXV5DZk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON   32629018 32848928 32828793 32138807 31638894 31519040
            32089058 32629018=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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