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075 
AXNT20 KNHC 100846
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Jan 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong to near gale force NE to E
winds will pulse offshore of NW Colombia through Sun night due to
the gradient between building high pressure N of the region and 
low pressure over northern Colombia, except minimal gale force 
until around sunrise this morning. Seas to 12 ft will occur 
within these winds. After Sun night, fresh to locally strong 
winds will prevail there.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off
the coast of Texas this morning. Strong to near-gale force N 
winds following the front will rapidly reach gale force near 
Tampico late this morning and afternoon, and in Veracruz adjacent
waters this evening through Mon. Winds may peak around 45 kt near
Veracruz. Seas will quickly build and likely peak at around 21 ft
offshore of Veracruz Sun and Sun night. The front will weaken and
stall from near western Cuba to the Yucatan Channel to the 
eastern Bay of Campeche by Mon evening. Conditions in the SW Gulf 
will gradually improve Mon night into Tue.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
 for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea 
near 10N14W and then continues to 06N18W. The ITCZ extends from 
06N18W to 04N35W and to 01N50W near the coast of Brazil. Widely 
scattered moderate convection is observed mainly south of 08N.

...GULF OF Mexico...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the W-central Gulf and western 
Bay of Campeche area. Please read the Special Features section 
above for details.

A subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends southwestward
to the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between this ridge
and lower pressures associated with a cold front over the southern
United States result in moderate to fresh SE-S winds over much of
the basin, especially east of 96W. Seas in these waters are 3-6 
ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas 
prevail. Areas of dense fog are present within 20 nm of shore of
SE Louisiana to nearshore of the western Florida Panhandle.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds will diminish this 
morning as a cold front near the Texas coast enters the basin. 
Strong to near- gale force N winds following the front will 
rapidly reach gale force near Tampico late this morning and 
afternoon, and in Veracruz adjacent waters this evening through 
Mon. Winds may peak around 45 kt near Veracruz. Seas will quickly 
build and likely peak at around 21 ft offshore of Veracruz Sun and
Sun night. The front will weaken and stall from near western Cuba
to the Yucatan Channel to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Mon 
evening. Conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually improve Mon 
night into Tue. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate 
seas will prevail across the basin through early Wed. The next 
cold front could impact the basin with increasing winds and 
building seas by Wed night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect the waters off NW Colombia. Please 
read the Special Features section above for details.

The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over 
the western Atlantic and lower pressures in NW South America 
results in strong to near gale-force NE winds in the south-central
Caribbean. This was confirmed by earlier scatterometer satellite 
passes. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to 
fresh easterly winds and moderate seas prevail, except locally
fresh to strong in the Lee of Cuba, across and through the
approach to the Windward Passage, and offshore southern Haiti. No
significant convection is noted across the Caribbean basin.

For the forecast, strong to near gale force NE to E winds will 
pulse offshore of NW Colombia through Sun night due to the 
gradient between building high pressure N of the region and low 
pressure over northern Colombia, except minimal gale force until 
around sunrise today. Seas to 12 ft will occur within these winds.
After Sun night, fresh to locally strong winds will prevail 
there. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast elsewhere in 
the central and SW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage and 
Hispaniola adjacent waters. Locally strong winds will be likely 
pulsing at night over the Windward Passage and S of Hispaniola 
through Sat night, with similar winds pulsing in the lee of Cuba 
early today and Sat night. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds 
will prevail, except for moderate to fresh winds near the Gulf of 
Honduras this morning. A decaying cold front may move into or near
the far NW Caribbean early next week where it will stall and wash out.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad 1028 mb high pressure system centered northwest of Bermuda
near 34N66W dominates much of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W.
A cold front extends from near 31N49W to 26N60W, where it becomes
a frontal trough to 25N65W to 28N74W. Moderate to fresh NE-E 
winds and moderate seas are found west of a line from 31N50W to 
Puerto Rico. Meanwhile, the central and eastern tropical Atlantic 
waters are dominates by a 1032 mb high pressure system located 
northwest of Madeira. A tight pressure gradient forces fresh to 
strong easterly winds and moderate to rough seas across much of 
the waters east of 44W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure building and sliding 
eastward in the wake of a cold front that extends from 27N55W to 
26N59W continuing as a frontal trough to 25N65W and 28N74W will 
support moderate to fresh NE winds across the waters E of the 
Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank, and the approaches to the Windward
Passage through Sun, with locally strong winds near the Windward 
Passage as the front washes out. A new cold front will emerge off 
the NE Florida coast Sun. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas 
will follow this front, which is forecast to reach from Bermuda to
the northern Bahamas by Mon morning. Thereafter, the front will 
become stationary as it dissipates Mon night into Tue. The next 
cold front may enter the NW waters by Wed night.

$$
Lewitsky
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