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ACUS01 KWNS 101959
SWODY1
SPC AC 101957

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected through Sunday morning.

...20Z Update...
Water vapor imagery shows the primary upper low within the Upper
Midwest. The strongest forcing for ascent should continue through
parts of the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/New England later
this evening into the overnight. Lightning activity has gradually
diminished in the Florida Panhandle/Southeast as convection has
encountered less buoyant air and mid-level ascent lifts northward.
This, coupled with weak low-level flow sampled by the KEVX/KTLH
VADs, suggests the threat for severe weather has diminished. Severe
probabilities have been removed with this update.

..Wendt.. 01/10/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026/

...MS/AL/GA/FL Panhandle...
Radar mosaic late this morning shows an extensive convective band
from the SC/GA/NC border southwestward to the MS coast.  The airmass
immediately ahead of the squall line is seasonably moist with
dewpoints ranging from near 70 deg F along the coast to the lower
60s in northeast GA.  Relatively weak lapse rates and meager
buoyancy were sampled by the 12 UTC FFC (Atlanta, GA) raob.
However, the more north-south segments of the squall line are more
favorably oriented to strong southwesterly mean flow fields across
the region.  As a result, the risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a
brief tornado or two will continue through the early afternoon near
the AL-GA border.  A lower perceived risk for severe likely exists
farther northeast into northern GA/Upstate SC where buoyancy is
weaker, and farther southwest into southern AL and the Gulf Coast
where the convective line is further displaced from stronger
forcing/low-level mass response.

A frontal segment pushing east across the OH Valley and Mid South
will consolidate with a front segment along the northwest Gulf
Coast, and sweep east across the much of the Southeast through
tonight and reach the FL Big Bend and Carolina coast by daybreak.

$$

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