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ACUS03 KWNS 121911
SWODY3
SPC AC 121910

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper trough will remain in place across the central/eastern
CONUS on Wednesday. Within the large-scale trough, embedded
shortwave troughs will move through parts of the Midwest/Great
Lakes, central Gulf Coast/Southeast, and the Florida Peninsula. A
surface low initially over Quebec will move quickly northeastward,
with new surface low development expected near southern New England
later in the period, and frontal wave development possible offshore
of the Atlantic Seaboard. A reinforcing cold front will move through
much of the central/eastern CONUS through the period.

With the exception of south FL, prefrontal moisture return is
expected to be too meager for appreciable destabilization. Across
south FL, weak buoyancy may be in place Wednesday morning, but most
guidance suggests that thunderstorm potential will largely be
offshore by the start of the period (12Z Wednesday morning). Late in
the period, weak convection associated with the approaching
shortwave trough and cold front may affect parts of the FL
Peninsula, but forecast buoyancy by late Wednesday night/early
Thursday morning appears too weak/shallow for appreciable
thunderstorm potential.

..Dean.. 01/12/2026

$$

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