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FOUS11 KWBC 130808
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
308 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Jan 13 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 16 2026


...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

After a day of light snow across the Upper Great Lakes today thanks
to a Canadian clipper racing east across southern Ontario, a more
potent 500mb shortwave trough with an accompanying arctic cold
front will reinvigorate the lake-effect snow machine starting
tonight. Robust CAA in wake of the arctic front will result
numerous multi-banded streamers, especially over the northern half
of the U.P., northern and western L.P., and south of Lake
Michigan. Additional LES bands are likely over northeast Ohio, the
Chautauqua Ridge, and as far north as the Tug Hill late Wednesday
and through Thursday. The heaviest totals will be found over
northwest IN and far southwest MI where there is high confidence in
a potent single-band of LES that is likely to generate 1-2"/hr
snowfall rates. WPC probabilities show moderate-to-high chances
(50-70%) for snowfall totals >6" in northwest IN with lower chances
(10-30%) for amounts exceeding 8". Given the intense mesoscale
forcing at play, seeing some localized amounts approaching 12"
cannot be ruled out. WPC's WSSI does depict Moderate Impact
potential in the hardest hit areas of northwest IN which could
result in delays and/or closures along I-94 and I-80.

Elsewhere, WPC probabilities show high chances (>70%) for over 4"
of snow across much of the U.P., while western MI (including
Traverse City) show moderate chances (>50%) for over 4 of snowfall.
For Wednesday and through Thursday, moderate-to-high chances
(50-70%) for snowfall >4" are depicted over northeast OH, the
Chautauqua Ridge, and the Tug Hull Plateau. Some areas along the
Chautauqua Ridge and Tug Hill could top 8" and localized amounts
approaching 12" are possible.


...Central Appalachians through the Northeast...
Days 2-3...

Over the past 12-24 hours, guidance has continued to trend farther
north with the track of the 500mb low traversing southern Ontario
Thursday AM that then heads into Upstate NY Thursday evening. The
mean 250-500mb mean trough axis is also becoming increasingly more
positive, which is resulting in less deepening of the developing
over Upstate NY by Thursday morning. With these trends, the best
divergence and moisture aloft will reside to the north of the 500mb
low over western and far northern NY. Guidance still disagrees as
to the duration and intensity of the snowfall, but the setup still
favors the development of a TROWAL over the region. Snow will
envelop the Adirondacks and North Country that could reach as far
south as the Finger Lakes. Snow is expected across much of northern
New England Thursday morning, but it is worth noting there is
evidence of a 700-300mb dry slot quickly advancing in from the
southwest that could try to end snowfall sooner over the
Adirondacks, Hudson and Champlain Valleys, and into the Green and
White Mountains. The one area that could still see wrap around
snow is western NY and the Chautauqua Ridge where the pivoting
TROWAL and lake enhanced snow bands are likely to linger through
the remainder of Thursday. Snow is also expected to the north of
the 500mb vort max over northern Maine before tapering off Friday
morning.

WPC 24-hour probabilities show the NY's shores along Lake Ontario
and NY's North Country as having moderate chances (40-60%) for
snowfall totals >6" through Thursday night with the Tug Hill
Plateau sporting low chances (10-30%) for localized snowfall totals
approaching a foot. The peaks of the Green and White Mountains are
also likely to see over 6" of snow while northern Maine shows low-
to-moderate chances (30-50%) for snowfall totals >4".

Farther south, guidance has also gradually trended less snowy in
the central and southern Appalachians. Persistent upslope low
amidst cyclonic flow that taps into Great Lakes moisture is likely
to produce anywhere from 1-4" of snow from the Laurel Highlands on
south through the Potomac Highlands and into the Blue Ridge and
Smokey Mountains of TN/NC. The >3,000ft mountain ranges in eastern
WV and the peaks of the Smokeys shows moderate chances (40-60%) for
localized snowfall totals >4" through Thursday afternoon. Snowfall
will taper off by Thursday evening as high pressure over the South
builds in over the region Thursday night.


...Upper Midwest & Northern Plains...
Day 3...

On Thursday, another Canadian clipper system ushers in another
round of snow over northern MN, northern WI, and the western U.P..
A plume of moisture associated with a ribbon of 850-700mb FGEN will
produce some minor snowfall accumulations Thursday afternoon. As
the snow via WAA moves into the U.P. Thursday night, another arctic
front will race south through the Northern Plains. The strong CAA
and steepening lapse rates may trigger snow squalls over the
Dakotas and as far west as eastern MT. WPC probabilities
favor northern MN and northwest WI for low-to-moderate chances
(30-50%) for snowfall totals >4", although a coating to 1" due to
passing snow squalls in the Northern Plains are also possible,
along with strong wind gusts that could result in whiteout
conditions locally Thursday night and early Friday morning.


Mullinax




$$

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