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FOUS30 KWBC 131551
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1051 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Tue Jan 13 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 14 2026

Recent Doppler radar imagery from Miami is indicating a nearly
stationary area of thunderstorms south of Key Biscayne, and just
east of Biscayne National Park as a result of a compact mesoscale
convective vortex. Moderate showers are ongoing across portions of
the Miami-Dade metro area, with some heavier rainfall possible at=20
times south of the city. However, the majority of the CAM guidance=20
supports the core of this convection remaining over the coastal=20
waters through this afternoon, and therefore no new risk areas are=20
currently warranted at this time. Should things evolve differently
than currently expected, a special ERO issuance could be needed=20
later today.

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hamrick

Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 14 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kleebauer

Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 16 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kleebauer

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4Qm9RYZoqPYNRoaF6WMgmGUAuPLfP1BJ5nJoW7hOFqKs=
qWM8BK_JSExI1PJUjukE7MTNf_suG3J-_UjB1q5Fuc_w190$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4Qm9RYZoqPYNRoaF6WMgmGUAuPLfP1BJ5nJoW7hOFqKs=
qWM8BK_JSExI1PJUjukE7MTNf_suG3J-_UjB1q5FhhXUPZ8$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4Qm9RYZoqPYNRoaF6WMgmGUAuPLfP1BJ5nJoW7hOFqKs=
qWM8BK_JSExI1PJUjukE7MTNf_suG3J-_UjB1q5FEjtBhv4$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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