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ACUS48 KWNS 150949
SWOD48
SPC AC 150947

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models continue to indicate that highly amplified
mid-level troughing will persist across much of North America (to
the east of the Rockies) and the Gulf Basin through this coming
weekend into early next week, when an initially prominent ridge near
the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast begins to weaken and
perhaps redevelop to the west/northwest.  Thereafter, sizable spread
remains evident within and among the various model output concerning
shorter wavelength developments and blocking within the larger-scale
split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, and the impacts
on the downstream flow remain unclear.

In general, it still appears that the Gulf Coast states and Gulf
Basin may come under the increasing influence of a strengthening
belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific,
and troughing may tend to dig within the mid-latitude westerlies
near and inland of the Pacific coast through mid to late next week.
However, even with guidance indicating potential for modest surface
cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies by the end of the
period, it does not appear that moist return flow off a modifying
Gulf boundary-layer will yet become supportive of appreciable inland
destabilization.

..Kerr.. 01/15/2026

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