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FOUS11 KWBC 161925
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
225 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Valid 00Z Sat Jan 17 2026 - 00Z Tue Jan 20 2026

...Central and Northern Plains into the Midwest...=20
Days 1 and 3...

With a longwave trough and embedded shortwaves forecast to persist
the next few days, bouts of snow will continue for the Plains to
the Great Lakes/Midwest. Snow squalls along the Arctic front will
yield generally low amounts of snow but potentially
hazardous/dangerous driving conditions. Snow showers and squalls=20
this afternoon will shift southward/eastward tonight through the
Midwest with less coverage. Another shortwave from Canada will
carry another threat for some banded snow showers and some snow=20
squalls Sunday over the Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest/Corn=20
Belt. Snowfall in these potentially lingering/repeating banding=20
could become locally heavy for a time and when combined with the=20
strong winds will create near-zero visibility.=20

Key Messages for these snow squalls are linked at the bottom of=20
this discussion.


...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

Persistent cyclonic flow around the Great Lakes will favor rounds=20
of lake effect snow downwind of all Great Lakes Lead system tonight
will favor Michigan (esp. the U.P.) as the surface low moves into=20
Ontario. Next system on Sunday will renew the lake machine across=20
Michigan then into the NY lake belts as the next area of low=20
pressure moves right across Lake Superior into Ontario. WSW flow=20
over Lakes Erie/Ontario could move the bands quite far north (e.g.,
north of BUF and ART) but the progressive flow would vary the band
locations through the period. Three-day snow totals will be=20
modest, with the favored areas (northern shore of the U.P., western
Lower Michigan, and into the Tug Hill) show >50% probabilities for
at least 12 inches of snow.=20


...Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and the Northeast...
Day 1...

Shortwave and cold front out of the Midwest will move into the
Appalachians with generally light to locally modest snow, enhanced=20
over the terrain (western PA/MD and eastern WV) tonight. WPC
probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are about 20-50%.=20

A strengthening upper jet will move into the Northeast early
Saturday with modest snowfall expanding through the interior
Northeast, especially over the Berkshires and into the southern
Green Mountains just ahead of the cold front. Snow could exceed
1"/hr in areas of the Poconos and northwestern NJ through parts of
the Catskills and into western MA per the 12Z HREF (30-60%=20
chance). The front should clear eastern Maine after 00Z and largely
end most accumulation. WPC probabilities for at least 6 inches of=20
snow are >50% over northwestern MA into southern VT as well as into
the Tug Hill Plateau.


...Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast...
Days 2-3...

Within the active pattern in the East is a southern portion of the
full-latitude trough that swings through the Lower MS Valley=20
Sunday morning. This will bring colder temperatures to the
Southeast as precipitation is slowly moving through the region
along/behind the front. Models have been struggling with how
quickly to move in colder air as precipitation ends, but some light
snow is possible over GA into the Carolinas Sunday morning of a
dusting to a tenth or two.=20

Further up the coast, precipitation will expand northeastward in
the right rear quad of the >160kt jet atop marginal to cold
temperatures (milder along/east of I-95 in the Mid-
Atlantic). Elongated baroclinic zone and areas of surface low=20
pressure will lift northeastward just off the Mid-
Atlantic/Northeast coast Sunday night. Models have struggled here
with the westward QPF extent and are sensitive to the
timing/strength of upstream/incoming mid-level systems as the flow
remains wide open. For now, have remained fairly steady on the
amounts which should result in a swath of a few inches of snow from
the Mid-Atlantic into the NYC area and New England. Highest
probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are in eastern Maine
(>50%) as any chance of a more organized system is higher as it=20
approaches Nova Scotia. However, a light snow of 1-3" is likely=20
from NJ northeastward along/east of I-95/91 where WPC probabilities
of at least 2 inches are at least 30%.

Fracasso


...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20
 Key Messages below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=
stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!87Gc6PAfEmAFY1wwwek2esPmSCIZYqVDtFagoGIre7OrO=
jq5eIs55aadK1HxyPINNkLRan8wbhzLqIvIYfPQxq8pr0A$=20



$$

=3D =3D =3D
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