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ACUS48 KWNS 180847
SWOD48
SPC AC 180845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the Plains
and eastern U.S. on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. As this occurs, some modest
Gulf moisture will spread across east TX toward the Lower MS Valley
ahead of a cold front. Some low potential for thunderstorms will be
possible, but the modest moisture return will limit instability and
severe potential is low.

Beyond Day 5/Thu, forecast guidance is not in very good agreement
with large spread resulting in greater than normal uncertainty. The
control member of the ECMWF appears to be an outlier, showing some
increasing severe potential across the Gulf Coast states toward the
end of the forecast period.  However, the GFS and EC-AIFS keep any
Gulf moisture offshore, precluding severe potential. Given these
large model discrepancies, severe probabilities seem low for now.

..Leitman.. 01/18/2026

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