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FOUS11 KWBC 181903
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
203 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Jan 19 2026 - 00Z Thu Jan 22 2026


...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

Shortwave trough passages around an anchored deep low over Hudson
Bay maintains cyclonic flow through the Great Lakes with rounds of
heavy lake effect snow through at least the first part of the week.
The Great Lakes are currently mostly ice free (total ice cover
estimated at 14%), with surface water temperatures between 2-6C
(warmer over southern Lake Michigan and Lake Ontario). 850mb
temperatures of -20C or so will be quite sufficient for a delta T.

The next reinforcing trough swings east across the extent of the
Lakes tonight/tomorrow along with a surface front. Post-FROPA NW
flow through early Tuesday will promote multi-banded snow into the
U.P. and western Lower Michigan where WPC probabilities for at
least 6 inches of snow through 12Z Tue are >70%. For Lakes
Erie/Ontario, SW flow ahead of the system tonight will keep the
bands mostly in Canada except for around Buffalo/Niagara Falls
before sinking back southward Monday afternoon/evening and
eventually waning on Tuesday (lastly over the Tug Hill). WPC
probabilities for at least 6 inches of snow through 00Z Wed are
>90% over the Tug Hill and near/just south of Buffalo. Over the Tug
Hill where the band could persist the longest, WPC probabilities
for at least 18 inches of snow are >50%.

After a brief lull Tuesday evening in the western Lakes, another
system will move through the region overnight and into Wednesday
with the surface low lifting from the Corn Belt across Lake
Michigan through Lower Michigan. Synoptic snow will be followed by
lake effect snow on Wednesday with the highest probabilities for at
least 4 inches of snow over western Lower Michigan near the track
of the area of low pressure (>60% probs).


...Eastern New England...
Day 1...

Deepening area of low pressure just outside the 40/70 benchmark at
00Z tonight will lift quickly northeastward into Atlantic Canada
overnight. Light to modest snow and snow rates (near 1"/hr) atop
cold to marginal surface temperatures over southeastern and eastern
New England will continue snow through the early overnight hours
before winding down by 12Z Monday. WPC probabilities for an
additional 4 inches of snow after 00Z are >50% over eastern MA and
northern RI (except for the Cape and Islands) and along eastern
coastal Maine.


...Central High Plains...
Day 1...

Arctic front diving through the Plains will bring in colder air to
the High Plains tonight. Right entrance jet dynamics over the
front will allow banded snow to develop over central MT/WY this
evening with stronger banding overnight from northern CO terrain
through western KS with snow bands lingering Monday morning over
southwest KS into western OK. The WNWly orientation of these bands
is parallel to the flow and should allow for persistence of narrow
bands of moderate to locally heavy snow. Day 1 PWPF for >2" remain
limited to 30% over the CO Front Range and 10-20% east of the
Palmer Divide in CO/western KS. CAMs generally struggled with these
synoptically driven bands that have a risk for high performance
given the motion along orientation, so there remains a threat for
4"+ in persistent banding scenarios (e.g., NAM nest).

Fracasso


$$

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