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FOUS11 KWBC 190842
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Jan 19 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 22 2026


...Great Lakes/Upper Midwest...
Days 1-3...

Shortwave trough passages around a deep low over anchored over
Hudson Bay maintain cyclonic flow and Lake Effect Snow across the
Great Lakes snow belts at least into this weekend. The Great Lakes
are ice free away from the narrower bays. 850mb temperatures of
-20C to -25C over surface water temperatures between +2 to 6C will
 continue to make for a high delta T and convective development.

A reinforcing trough currently over the U.P. swings east across
the rest of the Lakes today with a leading arctic cold front.
Post- FROPA NW flow through early Tuesday will promote multi-
banded snow into the U.P. and northern Lower Michigan where Day 1
WPC probabilities for >6" are 40-70%.

For Lakes Erie/Ontario, SWly flow veers Wly today with ongoing
single-band LES shifting south of Buffalo and onto the Tug Hill
Plateau. Day 1 PWPF for >6" are 60-80% in these zones. LES
continues through Tuesday night, so Day 2 PWPF for >6" are
especially highlighted over the Tug Hill with values over 80%.

A brief lull occurs Tuesday evening in the western Lakes under
brief ridging until the next shortwave/a clipper system shifts east
through the region Tuesday night through Wednesday. A surface low
lifts from Iowa across the L.P. through that time with synoptic
snow bands across northern Iowa and southern Wisconsin where Day
2.5 snow probs for >4" have risen to 20%. Brief LES can be expected
Wednesday into Wednesday night where Day 3 PWPF for >4" are 40-70%
in the western U.P., the length of the western L.P. shore, and east
of Lakes Erie and Ontario.

Yet another clipper is quick on the heels on a similar path to the
previous with snow bands likely over northern Iowa, southern
Wisconsin and souther Michigan again Wednesday night.


...Central High Plains...
Day 1...

Right entrance jet dynamics continue to provide lift over a
baroclinic zone on the central High Plains as high pressure builds
south over the Northern Plains. A decent swath of snow with narrow
embedded bands of moderate to locally heavy snow have developed
from northern CO Front Range to western KS. These will persist into
or through the morning as should slowly sag south to southwestern
KS as the jet also shifts south with the shortwave trough pushing
down the Rockies. An additional few inches can be expected in the
better bands.


The probability of significant icing is less than 10 percent.


Jackson




$$

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