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ACUS48 KWNS 190932
SWOD48
SPC AC 190931

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential is expected to be low during the Day 4-8 period.
Some modest Gulf moisture will impinge on the coastal regions from
TX into MS/AL/FL beginning Day 4/Thu. Warm advection will allow for
showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms, but weak forcing for
ascent and only very minor instability will preclude severe
potential. By Day 5-6/Fri-Sat, a deepening upper trough over the
western U.S. will develop east across portions of the Plains and
Midwest. A strong arctic cold front will move across the middle of
the country, ushering in another punch of cold to very cold air and
once again shunting Gulf moisture offshore. Some thunderstorm
activity could occur ahead of this front across the Gulf coast
states, but deeper moisture return is not expected and will be
insufficient for severe storms. Surface high pressure and a
cold/stable airmass will persist over much of the CONUS behind the
arctic cold front on Days 7-8/Sun-Mon.

..Leitman.. 01/19/2026

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