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ACUS02 KWNS 191707
SWODY2
SPC AC 191706

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Tuesday through
Tuesday night appear less than 10 percent.

...Discussion...
Seasonably cold and/or dry conditions will generally persist beneath
large-scale mid-level troughing encompassing much of North America
(across and east of the Rockies).  While little change in amplitude
is forecast through this period, models continue to indicate that an
initially notable ridge near/just offshore of the British Columbia
and Pacific Northwest coast is in the process of weakening.  As a
developing low within splitting troughing to the south-southwest of
this feature slowly digs toward the southern California coast, it
appears that weak mid/upper troughing emerging from the subtropical
eastern Pacific may shift inland across southern Baja and central
Mexico Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Lower Rio Grande Valley/Texas coastal plain into Ark-La-Tex...
It appears that the evolving pattern will allow for increasing
lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return across the region by late
Tuesday through Tuesday night.  This is likely to mainly emanate
from the subtropical eastern Pacific at mid-levels, and off a
modifying southwestern Gulf boundary-layer at lower levels.  While
forecast soundings suggest that this may contribute to developing
layers of weak conditional instability, it appears that weak to
negligible forcing for ascent will minimize the risk for convection
capable of producing lightning, even offshore of mid/lower Texas
coastal areas.

..Kerr.. 01/19/2026

$$

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