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ACUS03 KWNS 191918
SWODY3
SPC AC 191917

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity appears possible
Wednesday into Wednesday night across parts of eastern Texas into
the lower Mississippi Valley.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that amplified large-scale mid-level troughing will
generally be maintained across much of interior and eastern North
America during this period.  However, it appears that the southern
tier of the U.S. will continue to come under the increasing
influence of westerlies emanating from the southern mid- to
subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific.

Within an amplifying belt, including building mid-level ridging
across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, a notable developing
mid-level low may continue to slowly dig toward the southern
California/northern Baja Pacific coast.  It appears that this may be
accompanied by initially elevated moisture return from the lower
latitude eastern Pacific, across coastal areas into the Sierra
Nevada.  However, the mid-level cold core, supportive of better
boundary-layer destabilization and the development of thermodynamic
profiles potentially more conducive to thunderstorm development,
will likely remain offshore through at least this period.

Downstream, lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return may continue to
overspread parts of southern/eastern Texas into the lower
Mississippi Valley Wednesday through Wednesday night.  It appears
that weak  boundary-layer destabilization, and one potential area of
thunderstorm development, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of
an initial perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern
Pacific, will remain offshore of coastal areas.  However, elevated
inland moistening beneath residually cold mid-level air might become
sufficient for convection occasionally becoming capable of producing
lightning by late Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

..Kerr.. 01/19/2026

$$

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