TZUTC: 0000
MSGID: 168714.weather@1:2320/105 2dd66370
PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0
TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0
BBSID: CAPCITY2
CHRS: ASCII 1
FORMAT: flowed
FOUS11 KWBC 192055
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
355 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Valid 00Z Tue Jan 20 2026 - 00Z Fri Jan 23 2026


...Great Lakes/Upper Midwest...
Days 1-3...

A highly negative AO teleconnection will keep the large Hudson Bay
vortex in place while embedded shortwave troughs revolving around
the Hudson Bay vortex continue to trigger LES bands over the
typical snow belts. The Great Lakes are remain ice free away from
the narrower bays and coast lines. Sufficiently steep lapse rates
persist due to 850mb temperatures of -20C to -25C racing over
surface water temperatures between +2C to +6C.

For Lakes Erie/Ontario, SWly flow veers Wly today and tonight with
ongoing single-band LES shifting south of Buffalo and onto the Tug
Hill Plateau. Day 1 PWPF for >6" are 70-90% in these zones.

A brief lull occurs Tuesday evening in the western Lakes and
eventually eastern Lakes by Wednesday morning under brief ridging
until the next shortwave/a clipper system shifts east through the
region Tuesday night through Wednesday. A surface low lifts from
Iowa across the L.P. through that time with synoptic snow bands
across northern Iowa and southern Wisconsin where Day 2 snow probs
for >4" are 10-20%. Brief LES can be expected Wednesday into
Wednesday night where Day 2.5-3 PWPF for >4" are 40-70% in the
western U.P., the length of the western L.P. shore, and east of
Lakes Erie and Ontario.

Yet another clipper is quick on the heels on a similar path to the
previous with snow bands likely over northern Iowa, southern
Wisconsin and souther Michigan again Wednesday night through
Thursday. In total through Thursday, snowfall amounts are expected
to add up to at least 1 to 2 feet downwind of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario, with higher chances (60-80%) for over 2 feet across the
Tug Hill of NY.


The probability of significant icing is less than 10 percent.


Snell/Jackson



$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)
SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 16/0 19/10 37 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302
SEEN-BY: 123/130 128/187 129/14 142/104 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50
SEEN-BY: 154/110 700 203/0 218/700 840 220/10 20 90 221/1 6 360 226/18
SEEN-BY: 226/30 44 50 227/114 229/110 134 206 300 307 317 400 426
SEEN-BY: 229/428 470 664 700 705 240/5832 266/512 280/5003 291/111
SEEN-BY: 301/1 320/119 219 319 2119 322/757 762 326/101 335/364 341/66
SEEN-BY: 342/200 396/45 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848 902/26 2320/0
SEEN-BY: 2320/105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35
PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 1 320/219 229/426