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263 
AXNT20 KNHC 201012
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Jan 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 1032 mb 
high pressure SW of the Azores and the Colombian low is supporting
fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds offshore Colombia. These 
two features will remain in place through the middle of the week, 
before the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. Drainage 
flow at night will enhance winds off Colombia to gale force at 
night through Thu morning. Rough seas are forecast with these 
winds. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras and northern 
Central America: Periods of significant heavy rainfall are 
expected through mid-week as abundant tropical moisture interacts
with a now shearline extending from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of 
Honduras. Fresh to strong winds will persist over the NW Caribbean
in the wake of the shearline. This will result in the 
continuation of heavy rainfall Tue through early Wed in the Gulf 
of Honduras and northern Honduras, where totals in excess of 12 
inches will be likely. 

Please consult products from your local meteorological services 
for additional information. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 09N14W and continues southwestward to 03N25W. The 
ITCZ extends from 03N25W to 02S42W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge dominates the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds and slight to moderate seas across
much of the basin. The dry continental airmass moving across the
Gulf water suppresses the development of showers and thunderstorms.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the 
region. The pressure gradient between this system and a frontal 
boundary over the NW Caribbean supports fresh to strong northerly
winds and rough seas across the SE and SW Gulf, including the 
Yucatan Channel. These marine conditions will continue to diminish
tonight. However, strengthening high pressure over the SE of the 
United States will bring fresh to strong NE winds and building 
seas, mainly over the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of 
Florida, tonight through Wed. The next cold front is slated to 
enter the NW Gulf Fri night followed by fresh to strong winds and 
building seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy
Rainfall in the NW Caribbean through midweek, as well as a Gale 
Warning offshore Colombia.

A dissipating stationary front has transitioned into a shearline,
extending from Camaguey, Cuba to the Bay Islands and northern 
Honduras. Scattered showers are evident in the Bay Islands and 
ahead of the front. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured
fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front. Seas in these 
waters are moderate to rough. The remainder of the Caribbean is 
dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. 
Outside of the south-central Caribbean, moderate to fresh 
easterly and moderate to rough seas prevail across the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, gale force NE winds are forecast to pulse each 
night over the waters offshore Colombia through Thu morning. A 
shearline extending from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras will
dissipate today. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas 
will persist over the NW Caribbean W of the shearline. By this 
evening, strengthening high pressure over the SE of the United 
States will reinforce the northerly winds over the NW Caribbean, 
including the Gulf of Honduras. These marine conditions will 
improve by Wed. In addition, the NE winds will continue to 
transport abundant tropical moisture into northern Honduras 
supporting periods of heavy rainfall through mid-week. An area of 
moisture, currently located over the central Atlantic, will reach 
the Leeward Islands on Wed, and Puerto Rico on Thu increasing the 
potential for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to the central
Bahamas and then to Camaguey, Cuba. Scattered showers are noted 
along this boundary. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and 
moderate to rough seas are noted behind the front. The rest of 
the basin is dominated by an extensive subtropical ridge near the 
Azores. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower 
pressures in the deep tropics supports fresh to near gale-force 
easterly winds east of 60W and south of 28N. Seas in these waters 
are rough. Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas 
are also occurring off Morocco. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter 
winds and moderate seas prevail. Divergence aloft is sustaining a 
few showers east of the Lesser Antilles, especially south of 21N 
and between 40W and 55W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure will 
continue to promote fresh to strong NE to E winds east of 65W 
through Thu. A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to the 
coast of central Cuba. This feature will prevail in the area, then
lift N while dissipating by midweek. High pressure building over 
the SE of the United States will reinforce the NE winds to fresh 
to strong speeds over the western Atlantic, in the vicinity of the
Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through Wed. 

$$
ERA
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