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FOUS30 KWBC 201523
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1023 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Tue Jan 20 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 21 2026

Texas coast...
An area of moisture convergence/frontogenesis has been the focus=20
of showers trying to stream into the Middle TX Coast off the Gulf=20
of Mexico. The 0.5"+ an hour rain amounts have been focused off the
coast, along the lines of the output from the 12z HREF guidance.
With time, the RAP shows the flow veering in this area, showing
less of a surface focus for the convection with time. The 12z HREF=20
is focusing whatever heavy rain threat that exists just offshore of
Port O'Connor, mostly during the 16-20z time frame, before fading.
Local totals to 3" are expected just offshore. Even if this=20
activity were to unexpectedly drift ashore, the heavy rainfall risk
appears too isolated and too limited for a Marginal Risk area, so=20
left the graphic area-free.=20

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 21 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 22 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.


Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 22 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 23 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!480FaRCB443YsYUZ_7sRxBYf0M8f7usADtjTvpHhTAu3=
2Fh-CeGV0plK2wBVE8fyKYAiSF7RxZB2gb43Ru_6qO32Yc0$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!480FaRCB443YsYUZ_7sRxBYf0M8f7usADtjTvpHhTAu3=
2Fh-CeGV0plK2wBVE8fyKYAiSF7RxZB2gb43Ru_6OFVUBUQ$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!480FaRCB443YsYUZ_7sRxBYf0M8f7usADtjTvpHhTAu3=
2Fh-CeGV0plK2wBVE8fyKYAiSF7RxZB2gb43Ru_6MXONIXQ$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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