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ACUS03 KWNS 201903
SWODY3
SPC AC 201902

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Aside from the risk for a couple of thunderstorms near southern
Florida Atlantic coastal areas, potential for thunderstorms appears
minimal across much of the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that a significant short wave trough emanating from
the Arctic latitudes will continue digging across and southeast of
the central Canadian/U.S. border through this period, reinforcing
broad, cold mid-level troughing across the northern U.S. Great
Plains through middle and northern Atlantic Seaboard.  In lower
latitudes, flow is forecast to remain broadly cyclonic as far south
as the northern Gulf Basin, but with a continued slow/subtle warming
in mid-levels across much of the Gulf Coast states, downstream of a
slowly digging mid-level low offshore of the southern
California/northern Baja coast.  It appears that the modest and
compact mid-level cold core of this low will remain offshore through
at least this period, as a sharp upstream ridge builds a bit further
northward through the mid-latitude eastern Pacific.

Beneath this regime, it appears that the primary frontal zone may
remain quasi-stationary across the Carolinas through northern
portions of the eastern Gulf Coast states.  However, some further
southward advancement is possible across the Ark-La-Miss and central
Texas by late Thursday night, as a prominent cold surface ridge
continues to build along an axis across the Canadian Prairies
through middle and lower Missouri Valley.

Some further low-level moistening is possible to the south of this
front, off a slowly modifying Gulf and southwestern Atlantic
boundary layer.  However, beneath slowly warming mid-levels, with
weak mid/upper support for convective development, the risk for
thunderstorms appears limited Thursday through Thursday night.

...Southern Florida...
A consensus of latest available model output, ranging from ECENS and
GEFS convective precipitation forecasts to NAM/Rapid Refresh
forecast soundings and NAM/RRFS convection allowing guidance,
suggests that at least minimum threshold thunderstorm probabilities
may become focused during this period in the vicinity of weak
surface troughing developing near southern Florida Atlantic coastal
areas.  This appears possible in response to increasing
boundary-layer destabilization and convergence, perhaps aided by
forcing associated with weak perturbations within the subtropical
westerlies.

..Kerr.. 01/20/2026

$$

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