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FOUS11 KWBC 202058
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Jan 21 2026 - 00Z Sat Jan 24 2026


...Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes...=20
Days 1-3...

Sprawling Hudson Bay vortex dominates the continental pattern
through this week. Within the broad cyclonic pattern, a shortwave=20
and developing surface wave is forecast to traverse the Upper=20
Midwest tonight. Tonight, a corridor of warm advection and=20
associated 850-700 mb frontogenesis on the northeast flank of the
low center will drive an east-west oriented snow band spreading=20
from the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. The latest PWPF
for >4" is 20-30% over northwest IA and southern WI, which=20
increases to 50-75% over southwestern MI. By tomorrow, a modest
clipper system following behind the lead wave will drive additional
snowfall, although the QPF footprint with this system is markedly
lower. Meanwhile, strong single-banding will gradually come to an=20
end tonight downwind of Lake Ontario. Even so, the Day 1 PWPF for=20
>6" is around 50% in the Tug Hill Plateau, which ramps up to above=20
90% by Day 3 with the approach of a strong Arctic high from the=20
west.

Asherman/Jackson

...Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley...
Day 3...

....Major Winter Storm To Begin Impacting the South Central U.S.=20
on Friday...

The highly anticipated winter storm that is expected to impact much
of the southern and eastern U.S. this weekend begins on Friday. To
produce a winter storm of this size and magnitude, the weather
pattern must have a very cold air-mass anchored to the north. In
this case, a near record-breaking dome of high pressure to the
north is filtering in a frigid air-mass throughout much of the
eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. Meanwhile, an upper trough off the
California coast will direct subtropical East Pacific moisture at
the Southern Plains. Persistent Pacific moisture overrunning an
arctic air-mass will result in not only snow, but treacherous sleet
and freezing rain from southern Texas to the Lower MS Valley.=20
Exact placement of the wintry mix zone remains unclear as guidance=20
is adjusting how strong the WAA aloft will be, but confidence is=20
growing in Friday morning being the starting point for wintry=20
precipitation. The latest WSO through Friday afternoon (D4 WSO=20
shows a large footprint of >50% odds for a warning-level snowfall=20
event from the TX Panhandle on east through much of OK and into=20
central AR. Farther south, heavy sleet and hazardous freezing rain=20
will be more common in the heart of Texas on east to the ArkLaTex.=20
This storm will have wide reaching impacts through the Mid-South=20
and all the way to the East Coast by this weekend. Residents=20
affected by this storm should continue to monitor the forecast=20
through their local warning forecast office at weather.gov.=20


Mullinax



...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20
 Key Messages below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=
stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!97DbUNAoUxdcCZ0op6hRdmQMMIqdMz9bPUdDmexpzgKBo=
UoyobGpTezL1K6VO3Vj0OtgEnw3C8SsVqJqr9URmM_gz14$=20

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=
stKeyMessage_2.png__;!!DZ3fjg!97DbUNAoUxdcCZ0op6hRdmQMMIqdMz9bPUdDmexpzgKBo=
UoyobGpTezL1K6VO3Vj0OtgEnw3C8SsVqJqr9UR0mK2zF8$=20



$$

=3D =3D =3D
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