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FOUS11 KWBC 210923
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
423 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Jan 21 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 24 2026


***At Least Major Winter Storm Impacts The South Friday Through=20
 This Weekend, Expanding Up The East Coast Saturday Night***

...Southern Rockies, Southern Plains, Through the Mid-South and
Gulf Coast into The Tennessee Valley...=20
Days 2-3...

Precip onset for major winter storm Friday on the Southern Plains=20
and Southern Rockies, quickly intensifying and expanding east over
the Mid-South and Gulf Coast states into the Tennessee Valley=20
Saturday. Expansive cold air mass spills down the Plains Thursday=20
night from 1052mb high pushing into North Dakota. Meanwhile, a=20
cutoff low under a deep ridge off the West Coast approaching=20
southern CA Thursday gets absorbed into the flow of a northern=20
stream trough dropping down the northern Rockies Friday making the=20
united trough full-latitude (through the length of the CONUS) by=20
Saturday. Subtropical East Pacific moisture ahead of the low trough
will spread across northern Mexico with Gulf moisture surging=20
north as early as Thursday night. Persistent Pacific and Gulf=20
moisture overrunning the arctic-sourced airmass will result the=20
full wintry p-type scenario from plain rain near the Gulf Coast to=20
freezing rain not too far inland, to sleet north of that and=20
finally snow where the warm nose remains subzero. The main notes=20
for the 00Z cycle is a northward shift in both QPF and the thermal=20
profiles/warm nose. However, the surface cold air should continue=20
to progress so in a sense the broadness of the winter weather swath
is still expanding (stretching from the Gulf Coast to the central=20
Plains). The precip intensification Friday night through Saturday=20
will be remarkable over the southern Plains and Mid-South with=20
heavy rates and likely catastrophic impacts for at least local=20
scales given the risk for over an inch of ice accretion and deep=20
snow with heavy sleet in between. Residents should prepare for=20
prolonged power outages that occur during the coldest air of the=20
season. Please monitor the forecast for your area via weather.gov.=20
With so much heavy precip occurring just after the WWD time range=20
ending 12Z Saturday, probabilities will be presented through 00Z=20
Sunday (Day 3.5). Day 3.5 PWPF for > 8" is 50-80% across much of=20
the central/southern CO Rockies through the central NM ranges with=20
a wide swath of 20-50% from much of OK, northern AR along the TN/KY
border to the southern Appalachians. Day 3.5 PWPF for >0.5" is=20
20-50% from northeast TX across the LA/AR border and northern MS=20
and northwest AL.=20


...Great Lakes...=20
Days 1-3...

Sprawling Hudson Bay vortex dominates the continental pattern
through this week. Within the broad cyclonic pattern, a pair of=20
shortwaves/clippers cross the Great Lakes through tonight with=20
associated 850-700 mb frontogenesis driving east-west oriented=20
snow bands over WI again and the Great Lakes. Day 1 PWPF for >4"=20
is 50% over southwest MI, northwest PA/western NY and over the Tug
Hill and Mohawk Valley. Northern lake LES continues then through
Friday. Day 2 PWPF for >4" is 50-80% for the Keweenaw and eastern=20
U.P., northern L.P., and the Tug Hill to the western Adirondacks.=20
These values diminish Saturday under surface ridging under the core
of the Arctic cold.


Jackson


...Winter Storm Key Messages remain in effect for extreme cold and
a major winter storm for the south. They are linked below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=
stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!6TkyJsUVAAqGEjMXf63mjHBuW427QXBU54gcPNA4JaazV=
CZVSrgAWf2a7OjMjHN5lztAe-3wWz8lG44mcV-Fe50kOA0$=20

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=
stKeyMessage_2.png__;!!DZ3fjg!6TkyJsUVAAqGEjMXf63mjHBuW427QXBU54gcPNA4JaazV=
CZVSrgAWf2a7OjMjHN5lztAe-3wWz8lG44mcV-F-DbOOYI$=20



$$

=3D =3D =3D
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