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137 
AXNT20 KNHC 211016
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Jan 21 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 1030 mb 
high pressure over the central Atlantic and the Colombian low is 
supporting fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds offshore 
Colombia. These two features will remain in place through the 
middle of the week, before the high pressure weakens and shifts 
eastward. Drainage flow at night will enhance winds off Colombia 
to gale force at night through Thu morning. Rough seas are 
forecast with these winds. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras and northern 
Central America: Periods of significant heavy rainfall are 
expected through today as abundant tropical moisture interacts 
with a shearline extending from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of 
Honduras. Periods of heavy rainfall will continue through early 
today in the Gulf and northern Honduras, where totals in excess 
of 12 inches will be likely. 

Please consult products from your local meteorological services 
for additional information. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Guinea near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 03N24W. The 
ITCZ extends from 03N24W to 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ between 17W-36W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong surface ridge over the eastern United States forces 
fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate to rough seas east of
90E, including the Florida Straits. Moderate to fresh easterly 
winds and moderate seas are found west of 90E to a line from 
southern Texas to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. Elsewhere, light to 
gentle winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong northerly winds and 
moderate to rough seas will persist through today. The next cold 
front is slated to enter the NW Gulf Fri night into Sat followed 
by fresh to strong winds and building seas. Reinforcing high 
pressure in the wake of the front, may bring gale conditions first
near Tampico, then near Veracruz on Mon. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy
Rainfall in the NW Caribbean through midweek, as well as a Gale 
Warning offshore Colombia.

A shearline extends from eastern Cuba to northern Honduras. Fresh
to strong NE winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail W of the 
shearline and north of 17N. Outside of the south-central 
Caribbean, fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate seas are
found off southern Hispaniola and NE Caribbean. Easterly swell is
reaching the Atlantic water passages of the NE Caribbean, allowing
for localized rough seas. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly 
winds and moderate seas are evident. 

For the forecast, strong high pressure over the SE of the United 
States will continue to promote fresh to strong NE winds and 
moderate to rough seas across the NW Caribbean through today. 
These winds are transporting abundant tropical moisture into 
northern Honduras supporting periods of locally heavy rainfall. A 
surface trough, and associated area of moisture, will move across 
the Leeward Islands late today, and over Puerto Rico on Thu, 
likely reaching Hispaniola on Fri. This is forecast to increase 
the likelihood of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 
over the islands and surrounding waters. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the discussion waters near 31N63W and
continues to eastern Cuba. To the W of this front, a weakening
stationary front extends from 31N70W to 29N81W. Scattered showers
are noted near these boundaries. The pressure gradient between a 
strong ridge over the eastern United States and the fronts 
supports fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas W of
68W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by an extensive 
subtropical ridge SW of the Azores, forcing fresh to near gale- 
force easterly winds and rough to very rough seas south of 27N 
and east of 67W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas are prevalent. Divergence aloft east of the Lesser Antilles 
sustains a large area of scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms, especially from 14N to 20N and between 45W and 57W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure will 
continue to promote fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas 
east of 67W through Thu. The stationary front in the W Atlantic will
lift N and gradually dissipate through Thu, while the weakening 
front W of the aforementioned one will dissipate today. The 
pressure gradient over the W Atlantic will continue to support 
fresh to strong NE winds in the vicinity of the Bahamas and the 
Straits of Florida through today.

$$
ERA
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