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ACUS03 KWNS 211928
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SPC AC 211927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Friday
through Friday night across parts of central Texas into the southern
Great Plains Red River Valley.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that a confluent mid-level regime will be maintained
across and east of the Rockies, downstream of amplified split flow
across the central/eastern Pacific into far western North America.
Although the center of initially prominent, cold surface ridging may
begin to weaken some while slowly shifting east of the Missouri
Valley through the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, the
leading edge of the Arctic air is forecast to surge southward across
the southern Great Plains, through much of central and southwestern
Texas by late Friday night.

The front is also forecast to advance further offshore of the
southern Mid Atlantic, but slower southward through the eastern Gulf
Coast states and lower Mississippi Valley, beneath a broad building
mid-level ridge across much of the south central and southeastern
U.S., downstream of mid-level troughing digging across the
international border into the northern U.S. Rockies/Great Plains and
a short wave trough emerging from the southern mid-latitude eastern
Pacific.

There remains notable spread concerning the eastward acceleration of
the latter perturbation, generally toward Baja, during this period.
However, guidance continues to generally indicate increasing
low-level moistening within strengthening southerly downstream flow,
across and north of the lower Rio Grande Valley and Texas coastal
areas.

...Southern Great Plains/Red River Valley...
Although mid-level lapse rates are not likely to steepen
appreciably, forecast soundings suggest that lower/mid-tropospheric
thermal and moisture advection may lead to weak destabilization by
late Friday into Friday night, mostly above the southward advancing
cold air.  It appears that this will become increasingly sufficient
for widely scattered to scattered convective development capable of
producing lightning, perhaps as far north as portions of southern
Oklahoma by 12Z Saturday.

..Kerr.. 01/21/2026

$$

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