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ACUS01 KWNS 220540
SWODY1
SPC AC 220538

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida on
Thursday, however, severe weather is not expected.

... Synopsis ...

A strong mid-level short-wave trough originating across the Canadian
Prairies will dig southeast toward the US Great Lakes on Thursday.
This will maintain broadly cyclonic flow across much of the United
States. In the wake of this trough, increasingly confluent mid-level
flow will maintain a strong arctic surface high as it begins to move
south into the Plains.

... Southeast Florida ...

Modest convergence along a remnant surface boundary may realize a
weakly unstable environment to support showers and perhaps a few
weak thunderstorms. Although the bulk of the activity should remain
offshore in the Atlantic, a couple of lightning strikes will be
possible across portions of far southeast Florida.

... Southern California ...

A vigorous closed low over the eastern Pacific will continue to dig
southeast, just off the California coast. The combination of modest
large-scale ascent downstream of the nose of a cyclonically curved
mid-level jet, cold mid-level temperatures, and onshore flow may
support a couple of lightning strikes within any orographically
enhanced shower. However confidence in this potential remains too
low to warrant graphical depiction at this time.

..Marsh/Weinman.. 01/22/2026

$$

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