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QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
238 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 22 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 23 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

A weak surface trough/frontal boundary may spark a few
thunderstorms across southeastern Florida between 15Z and 00Z
today. The airmass along and east of the coast should be plenty
moist and unstable, with weak kinematics below 500mb supporting
slow movement of any cells that may develop. Modest/marginal ascent
aloft and weak lapse rates should keep the overall threat of
heavier rainfall materializing over urban areas of the I-95
corridor fairly isolated. A non-zero threat of flash flooding
exists, but convective coverage and the brevity of the thunderstorm
risk precludes any addition of Marginal areas at this time.

Isolated showers across southern California may also impact
portions of the Transverse Ranges as well, with brief heavy rain
occurring near burn scars across the area. The threat for flash
flooding here is also less than 5% although an isolated instance of
excessive runoff cannot be completely ruled out.

Cook


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 23 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 24 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 24 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 25 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5bbuavJlmiKOVvq3CE5weaa4-xiE7I2arWSo7_IQI4Eb=
-B0E3_C8-4r0hl9_9SmZ78y2cBw2ynj2dyOt2lXySb2dK80$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5bbuavJlmiKOVvq3CE5weaa4-xiE7I2arWSo7_IQI4Eb=
-B0E3_C8-4r0hl9_9SmZ78y2cBw2ynj2dyOt2lXyhkAPYZ4$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5bbuavJlmiKOVvq3CE5weaa4-xiE7I2arWSo7_IQI4Eb=
-B0E3_C8-4r0hl9_9SmZ78y2cBw2ynj2dyOt2lXy3R1-yGY$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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