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ACUS48 KWNS 220856
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SPC AC 220855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A surface low over the Deep South on Day 4/Sunday morning will
develop east/northeast through early Monday, moving offshore the
Carolinas coast. As this occurs, an arctic cold front will continue
to push southeast across the Southeast U.S. Ahead of the front,
modified Gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak
instability. As an upper trough approaches, large-scale ascent and
warm advection atop the surface front will support isolated
thunderstorms across southern MS/AL into northern FL and southern
GA. Modest instability and poor lapse rates should limit severe
potential within the warm sector.

By Day 5/Monday, the cold front will have moved well offshore the
Gulf and Atlantic coasts and an arctic airmass will envelop much of
the CONUS. Mean troughing is forecast to persist, allowing
reinforcing shots of colder air to filter southward east of the
Rockies and preclude any return flow across the Gulf basin.

..Leitman.. 01/22/2026

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