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948 
AXNT20 KNHC 221020
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Jan 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong ridge north of the Caribbean Sea
is supporting gale-force NE winds that will prevail through this
morning over the waters offshore Colombia. Winds will continue to 
pulse to near-gale in the same area through the end of the week. 
Rough seas are forecast with these winds. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
 for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Africa near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 02N27W. The 
ITCZ extends from 02N27W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted S of 07N and E of 32W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the western Atlantic extends a ridge to the
Gulf waters, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and 
moderate seas east of 90W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail. Light showers are evident in the Florida 
Straits due to a dissipating stationary front.

For the forecast, the next cold front is expected to enter the NW
Gulf Sat followed by fresh to strong NW to N winds and building 
seas. Reinforcing high pressure in the wake of the front, may 
bring near-gale to gale conditions first near Tampico Sun night, 
then near Veracruz on Mon. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section on a Gale Warning off the
coast of Colombia.

Outside of the south-central Caribbean, a surface trough, and 
associated area of moisture, has entered the eastern Caribbean
enhancing convection. A strong subtropical ridge over the central
Atlantic supports moderate to strong easterly winds and rough 
seas in the north-central and NE Caribbean, including the 
Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate 
seas are found in the SE Caribbean and lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, 
moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are evident. 

For the forecast, gale force NE winds will prevail through early this 
morning over the waters offshore Colombia. Winds will continue to 
pulse to near-gale in the same area through the end of the week. 
The trough in the E Caribbean will continue moving W through the 
week, increasing the likelihood of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the islands and surrounding waters. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed from 30N72W to 23N80W. A few showers
are noted near this boundary. The tropical Atlantic is dominated 
by an extensive, strong ridge north of Bermuda, supporting fresh 
to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas south of 27N and 
east of 75W. The strongest winds and highest seas are found south 
of 20N and between the Lesser Antilles and Africa. Moderate to  
fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas are noted west of 
75W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are 
prevalent. A weak surface trough east of the Lesser Antilles and 
divergence aloft sustains scattered showers south of 20N and east 
of 47W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure will continue
to promote fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas east of 
75W through today. The pressure gradient over the W Atlantic will 
continue to support fresh NE winds in the vicinity of the Bahamas 
and the Straits of Florida through this morning. The next cold 
front will likely move offshore NE FL by Mon. Ahead of the front, 
fresh to strong SW winds are possible on Sun night, mainly W of 
75W. 

$$
ERA

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