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FOUS30 KWBC 221519
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1019 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Thu Jan 22 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 23 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

A mesoscale cyclone appears to have formed near the intersection=20
of a weak surface trough/front east to northeast of Biscayne Bay.=20
This combination has led to thunderstorm development with heavy=20
rainfall, which up until this point has only impacted southern
portions of Key Biscayne though some cells recently are=20
threatening to move ashore a little farther north across Key
Biscayne and near Fisher Island. The airmass along and east of the
coast is sufficiently moist and unstable for thunderstorms with=20
heavy rainfall, and effective bulk shear supports the formation of=20
random mesocyclones. The low-level inflow to the east north of the=20
mesocyclone runs counter to the westerly flow aloft, with the=20
combination leading to minimal cell movement. The overall threat of
heavier rainfall materializing over urban areas of the I-95=20
corridor still appears to be fairly isolated. The overall threat=20
appears to wane after 19z/2 pm EST when the guidance implies that=20
the mesocyclone near South Florida drifts eastward. A non- zero=20
threat of flash flooding exists, but convective coverage and the=20
brevity of the thunderstorm risk precludes any addition of Marginal
areas at this time.

Isolated showers across southern California may also impact
portions of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges as well, with=20
brief heavy rain occurring near burn scars across the area. The air
mass should be sufficiently moist, with precipitable water values
in the 0.75-1" range. Bubbles of 100+ J/kg of MU CAPE lie offshore
at the present time. This should maximize hourly rain amounts in
the 0.4" neighborhood. The 12z HREF probabilities of 0.5"+ in an=20
area are below 15%, also implying that lesser hourly amounts are
expected. The threat for flash flooding here is also less than 5%=20
although an isolated instance of excessive runoff cannot be=20
completely ruled out.

Roth/Cook


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 23 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 24 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 24 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 25 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9ATTRa2ZH13UBCblYS3MGlVDiuoItoOTwY4wqS_n6nHz=
oADuDME87uf9Ea05UsnNVbnIbx06LX4KlAr8Vf5nh4AA59o$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9ATTRa2ZH13UBCblYS3MGlVDiuoItoOTwY4wqS_n6nHz=
oADuDME87uf9Ea05UsnNVbnIbx06LX4KlAr8Vf5nYBceths$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9ATTRa2ZH13UBCblYS3MGlVDiuoItoOTwY4wqS_n6nHz=
oADuDME87uf9Ea05UsnNVbnIbx06LX4KlAr8Vf5n5YWWHo8$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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