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ACUS03 KWNS 221915
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SPC AC 221914

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Saturday through Saturday night.

...Discussion...
Downstream of amplified split flow across the Pacific into western
North America, models indicate that several short wave troughs will
gradually consolidate into larger-scale mid-level troughing across
the Rockies and Great Plains into Mississippi Valley during this
period.  This is likely to include at least a couple of merging
perturbations of Canadian Arctic origin digging across the
international border through the northern U.S. Rockies and Great
Plains, and another emerging from the northern mid-latitude Pacific
before digging inland across the Pacific Northwest coast through the
Great Basin.  Yet another impulse, emerging from the southern
mid-latitude eastern Pacific, is generally forecast to accelerate
across Baja and the northern Mexican Plateau, into the southern
Great Plains by late Saturday night.

Preceded by the southeastward development of an expansive cold
surface ridge across much of the nation to the east of the Rockies,
as far south as the Gulf coast vicinity, the potential for
significant lee surface cyclogenesis appears low through this
period.  However, latest guidance appears generally consistent
indicating modestly deepening surface troughing, accompanying
erosion of the cold air, in one corridor across the lower
Mississippi Valley toward the lower Ohio Valley, and another
near/offshore of the Carolina coast by late Saturday night.
Associated destabilization still appears likely to remain elevated,
and generally weak, in nature inland of northwestern and central
Gulf coastal areas, with negligible risk for severe weather through
at least 12Z Sunday.

..Kerr.. 01/22/2026

$$

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