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FOUS30 KWBC 230025
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
725 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Fri Jan 23 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 23 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 23 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 24 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE TEXAS
HILL COUNTRY...

Gulf inflow ahead of an incoming upper level trough across the
Northern Plains/West brings overrunning moisture into South-Central
TX, with precipitable water values rising to 1.25" within a cool
atmosphere with 5610 m 1000-500 hPa thickness, implying complete
saturation. RAP forecasts show MU CAPE rising to 500+ J/kg,
implying a heavy rain threat. The 12z HREF/06z REFS agree, showing
high enough probabilities of 0.5"+ an hour and 3"+ in 24 hours to
be of concern to the Hill Country, where there is limited topsoil
to prevent runoff. This new Marginal Risk was added in
collaboration with the EWX/New Braunfels TX, SJT/San Angelo TX,
and FWD/Fort Worth TX forecast offices.

Roth


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 24 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 25 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL NEAR THE
NORTHWEST GULF COAST...

An upper level trough phasing as it moves through the Rockies lures
sufficient Gulf moisture into Southeast TX/the Upper TX Coast and
southwest Louisiana, with precipitable water values rising to
1.25-1.75". Considering the coolness of the environment, this
should lead to atmospheric saturation. The region is diffluent
aloft and does not appear to be capped...700 hPa temperatures are
forecast to be below 6C. MU CAPE rises above 1000 J/kg, at times.
Inflow at 850 hPa/effective bulk shear appears sufficient for
convective organization. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local
totals to 5" are possible, given the above ingredients. The 12z
UKMET, 12z Canadian Regional/RDPM, and 00z ECMWF have a signal for
heavy rainfall in this region, though the 12z GFS does not. Enough
of a signal exists for a Marginal Risk area to be hoisted this
cycle. Over the past week, it has been wet across portions of
Jefferson, Orange, & Galveston Counties in TX as well as portions
of southwest LA south of I-10. Isolated to widely scattered issues
would be mostly confined to urban areas.

Roth


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4CYFg0eRCw186Mt1Q9CfbomyYY8PvUAxN1ZBTwNakJ3n=
wyQ4DfTl5FArYCWTEbU4rIS5HiPaCFDwQr_mjSZNM6MUelg$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4CYFg0eRCw186Mt1Q9CfbomyYY8PvUAxN1ZBTwNakJ3n=
wyQ4DfTl5FArYCWTEbU4rIS5HiPaCFDwQr_mjSZN23DchlE$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4CYFg0eRCw186Mt1Q9CfbomyYY8PvUAxN1ZBTwNakJ3n=
wyQ4DfTl5FArYCWTEbU4rIS5HiPaCFDwQr_mjSZNEOZn5Uo$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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