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FOUS30 KWBC 230810
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 23 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 24 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE TEXAS
HILL COUNTRY...

Maintained low-end/5% probabilities for a conditional flash flood
risk across the Hill Country today and tonight. 00Z models are
suggestive of convection anchoring along an Arctic front - perhaps
becoming slightly elevated while training/repeating across
localized areas. This scenario is conditional on the eventual
location of the Arctic front moving south across the region though,
with some lingering uncertainty present given the tendency for=20
strong fronts like these to outpace guidance and move farther south
than anticipated. Thus, flash flood potential is conditional as=20
well. High-res guidance hints at a complex that grows upscale while
migrating east toward the Austin/San Antonio areas late in the=20
forecast period.

Cook

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 24 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 25 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE UPPER
TEXAS GULF COAST AND VICINITY...

Maintained 5%/Marginal risk probabilities although with a southward
shift/confined to areas near Victoria, Houston, and Lake Charles.
Any chance of deep convection will reside near these areas during
the forecast period and migrate west to east during the first half
of the forecast period (through 00Z Sun). Lingering uncertainty
remains regarding the eventual progress of an Arctic front that=20
should eventually reach (or even move south of) the I-10 corridor=20
during the forecast period. If that front moves south faster than=20
guidance suggests, any deep convective threats will potentially be=20
minimized/shifted toward open Gulf waters. Upstream convective=20
evolution (storms over the Hill Country and Austin/San Antonio=20
areas during the Day 1 forecast period) also poses uncertainty=20
with the forecast. Should storms materialized as currently progged,
1-2 inch/hr rain rates could occur with surface-based or slightly=20
elevated convection given 1.25-1.75 inch PW values just south of=20
the front. These rates could pose excessive runoff issues should=20
they occur in sensitive and/or urban locales.

Cook

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 25 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 26 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ALABAMA...

Models are in pretty good agreement that a linear complex of deep
convection will traverse the area from west to east, with a variety
of solutions providing 1-3 inch rain amounts across the region.
Soil moistures are slightly more moist in portions of central and
northern Alabama compared to surrounding regions, and FFGs are
lower (especially near populated areas). Some concern exists
regarding fast storm motions (derived from point forecast
soundings) and questions about northward extent of moisture
return/60s F dewpoints and subsequent surface-based instability.
Enough of a signal exists across model guidance to introduce low
probabilities (5%) for flash flood potential in these areas, with
spatial refinements to the risk expected in subsequent outlooks.

Cook

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-I9ovMuanCt9Z8Zp7udfVFRPISZJ5Yrp_pt_GQisKpDN=
33hfaeCysixVbFQTJoxWZ5IdstaPWSSXyeVCXsUZCLKo24Y$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-I9ovMuanCt9Z8Zp7udfVFRPISZJ5Yrp_pt_GQisKpDN=
33hfaeCysixVbFQTJoxWZ5IdstaPWSSXyeVCXsUZ0au_68Q$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-I9ovMuanCt9Z8Zp7udfVFRPISZJ5Yrp_pt_GQisKpDN=
33hfaeCysixVbFQTJoxWZ5IdstaPWSSXyeVCXsUZ-df2Myk$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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