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ACUS01 KWNS 231238
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SPC AC 231237

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight
across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low off
the northern Baja California coast, with a subtle lead shortwave
moving into northwest Mexico and modest shortwave ridging from
central Mexico into southeast AZ/southwest NM. Largely zonal flow
persists across much of the central and eastern CONUS.

Surface analysis reveals an expansive 1048 mb high extending from
the southern Canadian Prairies through the central Plains, mid MS
Valley, and much of the OH Valley. Very cold temperatures accompany
this high, and an intense cold front is currently pushing southward
across the TX Panhandle, northern OK, and northern AR. This same
front is pushing southeastward across the middle OH Valley.

...Big Bend Region into North/Central Texas...
Some modest low-level moisture advection is ongoing ahead of the
cold front from the TX Coastal Plain into the TX Hill Country. This
advection is forecast to continue throughout the day, likely
bringing upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints as far northwest as the Edwards
Plateau before interacting with the front this afternoon. Heating
will be tempered by abundant cloud cover and mid-level lapse rates
will be poor. Even so, the anticipated low-level moisture coupled
with cold mid-level temperatures should result in a relatively
confined area of moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg)
tonight. Additionally, deep-layer vertical shear will be strong,
resulting in environmental conditions that could support a
strong/marginally severe storm or two. However, the overall threat
will be mitigated by the undercutting nature of the cold front and
likely storm interactions. The limited duration and isolated nature
of the severe threat currently precludes the need for probabilities.

Farther north and west, a large area of precipitation is expected to
develop behind the front, supported by the strengthening
southwesterly flow aloft and associated broad isentropic ascent.
Cooling mid-level temperatures may result in minimal buoyancy
(mostly after 03Z), with a few deeper convective elements within the
precipitation shield capable of producing lightning amid freezing
rain and/or sleet.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/23/2026

$$

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