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ACUS03 KWNS 231917
SWODY3
SPC AC 231916

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI,...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorm development appears possible across parts of the
eastern Gulf Coast states Sunday into Sunday night, accompanied by
some risk for severe weather.

...Discussion...
Within a broadly confluent regime across and east of the Rockies,
models suggest that positively tilted larger-scale mid-level
troughing may continue to consolidate while progressing across and
east of the Mississippi Valley during this period, downstream of
broad mid-level ridging within split flow developing inland of the
Pacific coast into Intermountain West.  In its wake, it appears that
another notable cold surface ridge will build south-southeastward to
the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Great Plains and
Mississippi Valley by late Sunday night.  Ahead of it, models
indicate that the remnants of a preceding Arctic intrusion will
undergo more substantive modification, but, coupled with weak inland
 upper forcing, probably not enough to support significant frontal
surface cyclogenesis across the Allegheny Plateau or Southeast.

...Eastern Gulf Coast states...
Guidance currently suggests that low-level thermal and moisture
advection, supportive of weak boundary-layer destabilization, may be
confined to a narrow inland spreading corridor across southeastern
Louisiana through portions of southern/eastern Alabama and adjacent
Georgia during the day Sunday, before being undercut/cut off by a
developing cold front.  It appears that this will coincide with, but
generally trail to the southwest of, a modest to weak developing
frontal wave across the Piedmont of Alabama into Georgia.

Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow overspreading the destabilizing
environment will probably still contribute to shear potentially
conducive to organized convective development.  This may include
sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs within the pre-cold
frontal warm advection regime.  However, forecast soundings suggest
that these low-level hodographs will trend more linear, as the
initially stable boundary-layer destabilizes.  So the risk for
tornadoes seems rather limited, but there may be a window for an
evolving line of storms with potential to produce strong surface
wind gusts, particularly across parts of southeastern Alabama and
the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia late Sunday
afternoon and evening.

..Kerr.. 01/23/2026

$$

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