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ACUS01 KWNS 231937
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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight
across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas.

...20Z Update...
No changes to the ongoing forecast are needed. See the previous
discussion for additional details.

..Wendt.. 01/23/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/

A large upper trough will deepen over the Rockies and High Plains
this evening, with large-scale forcing for ascent spreading across
much of TX/OK.  Forecast soundings in this area show sufficiently
steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE > 0 to support occasional
thunderstorms.  This includes parts of western north TX and southern
OK where freezing p-types are anticipated.

Over south TX, the main cold front will be surging southward into a
moist air mass with dewpoints in the 60s.  Several model solutions
suggest the development of a few thunderstorms along the front -
mainly after dark.  While a brief tornado or strong wind gust cannot
be ruled out, rapid undercutting of the front is expected to limit
the overall severe threat so no probabilities have been added.

$$

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