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FOUS11 KWBC 232103
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
403 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

Valid 00Z Sat Jan 24 2026 - 00Z Tue Jan 27 2026


...Major winter storm to bring the potential for crippling icing,=20
significant sleet, and heavy snow from the Southern Plains through=20
the Southeast and up the Atlantic Coast into New England...

Meteorological Overview...

A massive winter storm, set to produce a swath of heavy snow and=20
dangerous ice accumulations, has begun today as tropical East=20
Pacific moisture streams out ahead of the 500mb closed low near the
Baja Peninsula. This moisture plume is clashing with the coldest=20
air-mass of the season, entrenching itself over the Nation's=20
Heartland. The moisture transport is exceptional with an
integrated vapor transport (IVT) above the 97.5 climatological=20
percentile per ECMWF SATs. The rich moisture from the south will=20
accompany strong 850-700mb WAA that results in classic over-runing=20
along a developing area of 850-700mb FGEN atop the Southern Plains.
Meanwhile, the upper trough in the Southwest and an emerging=20
upper- level shortwave trough over the Dakotas will strengthen a=20
250mb jet streak over the east-central U.S., placing its thermally-
direct right-entrance region over the Southern Plains. This=20
synoptic- scale setup helps to enhance the mesoscale below,=20
fostering heavy bands of snow and even elevated instability above=20
the low-level sub-freezing layer over north TX on east into the=20
Mid-South tonight and into Saturday.

By Saturday, as the upper low near Baja approaches Texas, its=20
associated jet streak over Mexico will co-locate its divergent=20
left-exit region over the Mid-South and maximize upper-level ascent
over the region. The IVT in advance of the upper trough over=20
Mexico is both expansive and strong with >90th climatological=20
percentile IVT values originating south of Mexico and extending all
the way to the Southern Appalachians by Saturday afternoon. The=20
remarkable extent of the IVT and the slow progression of the Mexico
trough is why parts of the South and Mid-Atlantic are likely to=20
see snow, sleet, and freezing rain for over 24 hours and in some=20
cases approaching 48 hours. As arctic high pressure slides east, a=20
cold-air damming (CAD) signature will become well pronounced along=20
and east of the Appalachians as anomalous Pacific and Gulf moisture
arrives, leading to precipitation falling into the frigid air-mass
and supporting heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain totals from=20
the southern Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic.=20

Saturday night and into Sunday is where most changes in the
forecast have unfolded of late. It remains unclear just how strong
the emerging area of low pressure near the Gulf Coast will be and=20
how far north it gets. It is noteworthy that guidance is in good=20
agreement on 700mb Q-vector convergence over northern AL and the=20
southern Appalachians, but the GFS is a little farther south in=20
positioning while the ECMWF is a littler farther north and=20
stronger, resulting in the northern shifts over the last couple=20
days. What they do both agree on is by Sunday, a very pronounced=20
area of strong 700mb Q-vector convergence will unfold along the=20
Mid-Atlantic coast, prompting the development of a coastal low=20
along a strengthening coastal front. With the benefit of the 250mb
jet streak's divergent right-entrance region aloft and the=20
strengthening IVT (ECMWF SATs show >99.5 climatological percentile=20
values over the Southeast Sunday morning), an expansive=20
precipitation shield will span across the OH Valley, Mid-Atlantic,=20
and Northeast with excessive amounts of wintry precipitation=20
falling. While there remains some question on precipitation type,=20
the ECMWF EFI shows the QPF is >0.8 from the Southern Plains and=20
Mid-South to the Northeast, implying an unusually high amount of=20
QPF for this time of year will be at this winter storm's disposal=20
as it falls into a bitterly cold Arctic air-mass.=20

Heavy Snow/Sleet...

The latest forecast calls an astonishingly long swath (over 2,000=20
mile long in length) of >6" of snowfall that starts in the Sangre=20
De Cristo and Sacramento mountains of New Mexico all the way to=20
Downeast Maine. It is worth noting that the snowfall probabilities=20
being referenced will have snow and sleet. Focusing on the Plains=20
first, WPC probabilities sport high chances (>70%) for snowfall >8"
over central OK, southeast KS, southwest MO, and northwest AR.=20
There is another impressive swath of high chance probabilities=20
(>70%) for >8" of snow from southern IN and north-central KY to=20
eastern Maine. The Central Appalachians, interior Northeast, and=20
southern New England are likely to see the most snowfall with high=20
chances (>70%) for over a foot of snow in these areas. In fact, WPC
probabilities show low-to-moderate chances (30-50%) for totals=20
over 18" in the Catskills, Berkshires, and eastern MA. Farther=20
south, the inclusion of sleet from NY and Long Island southward=20
along the I-95 corridor will likely cut into snowfall totals.=20
Climatologically speaking, areas west of I-95 where topography=20
increases are most likely to see more snow than sleet. This is=20
evident in the >8" for snow and sleet probabilities where they are=20
high (>70% chances) from northwest VA and north-central MD along=20
Parrs Ridge to the Lower Susquehanna Valley, but below 50% over=20
southern NJ, the MD eastern shore, and south of Fredericksburg, VA.
Still, the WSO shows >50% chances for a warning-level snowfall as=20
far south as central VA on east through the northern DelMarVa and=20
into southern NJ due to the strong 850-700mb FGEN Saturday night=20
and Sunday morning that fosters snowfall rates that could ranges
between 1-2"/hr. So while snowfall/sleet totals are not quite as=20
high as their neighbors to the north, the combination of snow,=20
sleet, and inclusion of some freezing rain still support=20
significant travel disruptions in these southern areas as well.=20

The WSSI shows widespread Major Impacts (considerable disruptions
to daily life: dangerous to impossible driving conditions,=20
widespread closures, and disruptions to infrastructure) from the TX
Panhandle on east to the Ozarks, through the OH Valley, and all the
way to New England. Every major market along the I-95 metropolitan
corridor (Washington D.C. to Boston and even as far north as
Portland, ME) are expecting major impacts due to snow. The=20
D.C/Baltimore area on north to Philly and NYC are likely to see=20
some inclusion of sleet, but it will still result in significant=20
impacts when accounting for heavy snowfall that is expected to
exceed warning criteria (5-6"). A reminder that bitterly cold=20
temperatures will follow in wake of this storm Monday and into the=20
middle of the week throughout the eastern U.S.. The snow/sleet=20
impacts will linger well into next week with rounds of re-freezing=20
that keeps surfaces icy and dangerous to both drive and walk on for
the foreseeable future. Those in the path of this storm should=20
make final preparations and put plans in place for significant=20
travel disruptions this weekend and into at least early next week.


Freezing Rain...

The most lasting and dangerous impact will come as a result of=20
significant to locally catastrophic ice accumulations due to=20
prolonged periods of freezing rain. Just like the swath of >6" of=20
snowfall, the areal coverage of high chances (>50%) in WPC's ice=20
probabilities exceeding one-quarter inch of ice accumulation is=20
both impressive and alarming. From east-central TX to southern AR,=20
northern LA, northern MS, the TN Valley, northern GA, the southern=20
Appalachians, and southern Mid-Atlantic, these regions are all=20
likely to experience anywhere from one-quarter to one-half inch of=20
ice. Widespread power outages and tree damage is likely in these=20
areas, especially from the Lower MS Valley, southern Appalachians,=20
and central NC where there are also high chances (>70%) for ice=20
accumulations over one-half inch.=20

It is parts of northern AL, northern MS, south-central TN, far=20
northern GA, the southern Appalachians, and the NC Piedmont that=20
are of greatest concern. WPC probabilities show low-to-moderate=20
chances (20-40%) for ice accumulations over 1 inch. These areas are
likely to endure a crippling ice storm that will take days, if not
weeks, of clean up in addition to extended power outages. This is=20
demonstrated in a rare Extreme Impact on the WSSI in parts of
northern MS, far southern TN, and the Southern Appalachians. The
WSSI Extreme criteria references the potential for "extensive and=20
widespread closures, extremely dangerous travel, and life-saving=20
actions may be needed." Residents in these all referenced regions=20
above should take final preparations now. Once the freezing rain=20
starts, dangerous travel will be common not only during the event,=20
but in the days in wake of the storm due to prolonged sub-freezing=20
temperatures that cause persistent re-freezing on all untreated=20
surfaces. The Key Messages for the Extreme Cold are linked below=20
(Key Message 1).

Farther east, freezing rain will reach southern VA, the DelMarVa
Peninsula, and as far north as southern NJ. The southern VA
Piedmont, including the Richmond metro area, have moderate chances
(40-60%) for over one-half inch of ice. The WSSI depicts Major=20
Impacts from Richmond on south along I-95 into NC, while Moderate=20
Impacts (hazardous travel conditions) are anticipated as far north=20
as the northern DelMarVa Peninsula and into the Lower Delaware=20
Valley. While most areas farther north towards the Lower Delaware=20
Valley and southern NJ should largely remain sleet, it may=20
transition to freezing rain for a brief time by Sunday evening. WPC
probabilities show low-to-moderate chances (30-50%) for over one-=20
tench of an inch of ice accumulations Sunday evening.


Key Messages for this system are linked below (Key Message 2)


Mullinax




...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20
 Key Messages below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=
stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!8yFFARuqbgrlMXfpwPGS4uJRxeJOXQOZNw6H1nZpRTRha=
rrS6kEy-awMjMQhdY74aJIFWgelYkKRsYNo7so9y2A1flY$=20

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=
stKeyMessage_2.png__;!!DZ3fjg!8yFFARuqbgrlMXfpwPGS4uJRxeJOXQOZNw6H1nZpRTRha=
rrS6kEy-awMjMQhdY74aJIFWgelYkKRsYNo7so9tj5CnIA$=20

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=
stKeyMessage_3.png__;!!DZ3fjg!8yFFARuqbgrlMXfpwPGS4uJRxeJOXQOZNw6H1nZpRTRha=
rrS6kEy-awMjMQhdY74aJIFWgelYkKRsYNo7so9VdC50ig$=20



$$

=3D =3D =3D
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