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TXZ000-240922-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0015
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1023 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

Areas affected...portions of central Texas and the Hill Country

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240322Z - 240922Z

Summary...Flash flooding is possible on a localized basis through
09Z/3a Central.  Areas of thunderstorms are developing and will
move slow enough to provide 1-2 inch/hr rain rates at times.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts an uptick in
scattered convection across the Texas Hill Country just north of a
surface cold front extending from near Del Rio to near San
Antonio.  The storms were embedded in a strongly sheared
environment, with elevated instability just north of the front
(500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) supporting the uptick in convection.  Weak
mid-level shortwave troughs were approaching from the higher
terrain of northern Mexico, also helping to ignite convection.  A
close inspection of both point forecast soundings and RAOBs depict
updrafts rooted at around 850mb, with wind fields supporting local
right-moving storm motions of 10-15 knots.  These slow storm
motions were combining with 1-1.4 inch PW values to support
estimated rain rates of around 1.5 inch/hr with convection that
has become established near Kerrville.  These rates are enough to
prompt localized flash flood concerns given sensitive/varied
terrain and low spots across the region.

The ongoing forecast scenario will continue for at least the next
6 hours.  Deeper, slower-moving convection (potentially with
right-moving/supercellular characteristics despite being elevated
above the shallow stable layer) will continue to develop
occasionally, but also remain tied to the slow southward progress
of the cold front.  Spots of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates will gradually
shift/develop southward and eastward toward the I-35 and I-10
corridors over time.  Isolated instances of flash flooding are
possible where these locally heavier rain rates can materialize
over/near sensitive terrain.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-cXGI7RBYXOKdL9gC7Nr8Jofd7VtdRre4M3b0gjXeET4JN2gues8uAti2K-cBKlFviZ2=
w3_uxdIeaSVqXw3hk73w5cU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   30819890 30559786 29929754 29189767 28489889=20
            28780009 29360103 29810147 30460160 30790051=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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