TZUTC: 0000
MSGID: 168846.weather@1:2320/105 2ddc31fa
PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0
TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0
BBSID: CAPCITY2
CHRS: ASCII 1
FORMAT: flowed
FOUS30 KWBC 240636
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
136 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 24 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 25 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN A SMALL PART
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

Maintained a small part of the inherited Marginal Risk area across
areas near the Texas Coast. Latest guidance suggests that ongoing
convection across the Texas Hill Country will migrate/propagate
east-southeastward toward the Texas Coast area (Victoria to
Houston) in the 12-16Z timeframe. Point forecast soundings suggest
that the best combo of instability/moisture will reside in that
general area before convection moves though. Surface-based storms
could exhibit right-moving behavior due to supercellular wind=20
profiles aloft, with slow movement (around 15-20 knots) within a=20
moist environment (1.5+ inch PW), supporting efficient rain=20
processes and the potential for local 2-3 inch/hr rain rates. The=20
spatiotemporal extent of this risk is limited, with convection=20
either weakening or moving offshore by around midday. Isolated=20
flash flooding is expected primarily in the morning hours based on=20
this scenario.

Farther northeast, Marginal was removed from southwestern
Louisiana. Convection should be more elevated in nature and may
lose its organization some with eastward extent due to weaker
buoyancy and displacement from better mid/upper forcing upstream.
While local/minor runoff issues cannot be completely ruled out,
decided to focus the Marginal/5% risk probs farther southwest=20
where the better overall environment for flash flooding will=20
reside.

Cook


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 25 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 26 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN APPALACIANS...

Most guidance is supportive of perhaps several rounds of moderate
rain across the Marginal Risk area, preceding a more focused=20
linear complex progged to move through the discussion area from=20
west to east in the 12Z-00Z timeframe. The combination of preceding
rainfall, moistening/destabilizing environment (via advection=20
processes), and locally sensitive ground conditions/urban areas are
all suggestive of isolated excessive runoff concerns. The extent=20
of icing/freezing conditions across the southern Appalachians are=20
likely to hinder runoff, but decided to keep the Marginal Risk area
there for the sake of consistency. Only changes to the ongoing=20
forecast are a slight expansion of Marginal southeastward into=20
west-central/central Alabama (southwest of Birmingham), where=20
modeled convective trends suggest an uptick in QPF/flash flood=20
potential (albeit isolated).

Cook


Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 26 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 27 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8TsutUqxeAQCpbSDRyxrwS1z62x7J_F5q1Ao6191ImXk=
WpRvIy5j9MEFerH1tjrBHnfCaqDmbb_fZ1xx5Pac1lJ_KKE$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8TsutUqxeAQCpbSDRyxrwS1z62x7J_F5q1Ao6191ImXk=
WpRvIy5j9MEFerH1tjrBHnfCaqDmbb_fZ1xx5PacPkPKR9g$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8TsutUqxeAQCpbSDRyxrwS1z62x7J_F5q1Ao6191ImXk=
WpRvIy5j9MEFerH1tjrBHnfCaqDmbb_fZ1xx5Pacf3KblIU$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)
SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 16/0 19/10 37 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302
SEEN-BY: 123/130 128/187 129/14 142/104 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50
SEEN-BY: 154/110 700 203/0 218/700 840 220/10 20 90 221/1 6 360 226/18
SEEN-BY: 226/30 44 50 227/114 229/110 134 206 300 307 317 400 426
SEEN-BY: 229/428 470 664 700 705 240/5832 266/512 280/5003 291/111
SEEN-BY: 301/1 320/119 219 319 2119 322/757 762 326/101 335/364 341/66
SEEN-BY: 342/200 396/45 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848 902/26 2320/0
SEEN-BY: 2320/105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35
PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 1 320/219 229/426