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AWUS01 KWNH 241033
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TXZ000-241431-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0016
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
531 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Areas affected...southeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241031Z - 241431Z

Summary...Flash flood potential will increase over the next 2-4
hours near Houston Metro and surrounding areas.

Discussion...Persistent warm advection across southeast Texas has
maintained elevated buoyancy atop a frontal zone draped
east-to-west across the discussion area.  This buoyancy, combined
with isentropic upglide and a weak mid-level disturbance
approaching the region has triggered increasing deep convection
about 60 miles west/southwest of Houston Metro.  These cells were
slightly elevated, but were also in an environment with ~1.5 inch
PW values, supporting locally heavy rainfall.  Recent MRMS data
suggests 1 inch/hr rates beneath the stronger activity.

On their current trajectory, these cells will migrate toward areas
near Houston Metro and points south over the next couple hours or
so. 1 inch/hr rain rates could contribute to urban
ponding/excessive runoff especially if localized training can be
established.  Flash flooding is possible in this scenario.

The flash flood threat in this region will likely last for about
2-4 hoursor so.  A strong cold front was surging southeastward
along a line from near Victoria to Cotulla.  This front will
eventually undercut ongoing convection as it approaches the Gulf
Coast through 13-14Z (7-8am Central).  Any flash flood threat
should decrease some behind this front as colder air filters in
and contributes to stabilization.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_1NuyYPZ4es-I3lma45_GvQgXOYkNnYwgeBrX0QG7FE3UUPqpMC_QW6qIfL4d563QYlE=
QeUPL8lo4eilv0gXvbb0KjM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   30509549 30309452 29749446 28879538 28459699=20
            28869758 29829739 30299658=20

=3D =3D =3D
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